VST · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Vistra reports FIVE segments — Retail, Texas, East, West, Asset Closure — but Retail $3,610M + Texas $1,418M + East $954M + West $71M = $6,053M before $(2,036)M of intercompany eliminations. This model carries ONE vertical on consolidated operating revenues so the $4,017M reconciles. Do not add the geos. GAAP revenue includes unrealised hedge marks: Q2 fell 5.5% while ongoing adj EBITDA rose 31% on a $472M unrealised loss. Segment 'EBITDA' here is ongoing adj EBITDA over operating revenues (44%). Capex 17% is Q2 PPE including nuclear fuel; terminal 8% is the 2026 guide $1,536M over a ~$19B year. netCash is cash $435M less current LTD $1,876M less LTD $17,719M. Meta PPAs and Cogentrix have no disclosed dollar path and are not delayed verticals. Helix is a $1B programme. Asset Closure is outside ongoing operations. Shares ~336M as of 3 August 2026.
Power prices roll over as 2028 hedges drop to 72%, Cogentrix slips, and Meta deliveries miss 2027. What this case does NOT assume is another Uri or a loss of the TXU retail book. It says 2026 was the peak realised-price year.
Latest: $3.86B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3.93B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.25B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.97B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.58B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.64B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.21B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.36B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.47B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.54B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.59B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.61B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.62B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.60B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.57B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.53B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.48B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.42B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.36B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.30B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.15B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.08B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.01B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.94B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.86B |
What drives each segment
Ongoing Operations
Growth pathIntegrated retail plus generation after Asset Closure. $4,017M of GAAP operating revenues, −5.5% year over year, and $1,767M of ongoing adj EBITDA, +31%. What paces it is the fleet and the hedge book. No quarterly MW-earning series is published, so the projection is sequential growth on the filed total.
Latest: $3.86B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3.93B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.25B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.97B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.58B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.64B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.21B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.36B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.47B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.54B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.59B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.61B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.62B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.60B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.57B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.53B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.48B |
| 2029Q2E | $4.42B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.36B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.30B |
| 2030Q1E | $4.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.15B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.08B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.01B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.94B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.86B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Do not add Retail + Texas + East + West. Q2 10-Q geos sum to $6,053M before $(2,036)M of eliminations — generation sold to retail. The $4,017M is the external number.
- Opening 8% is a summer step. Combined with 44% adj-EBITDA margin it does not try to hit $7.2B of 2026 EBITDA via hedge-marked GAAP revenue. That guide is the claim, not the arithmetic of this line.
- Margin 44% is ongoing adj EBITDA $1,767M / $4,017M. GAAP operating income $553M is after D&A. Terminal 40% walks off a strong realised-price quarter.
- Q2 capex $689M is 17% of revenue including nuclear fuel. 2026 guide $1,536M is the 8% terminal. Helix's $1B sits in corporate programmes, not here.
Where each case comes from
Meta PPAs case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Meta PPAs column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Vistra Q2 2026 earnings release, 7 August 2026
- Aug 7, 2026 The ranges exclude any potential benefits from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the signed power purchase agreements with Meta, part of which are expected to contribute to our Adjusted EBITDA in 2027.
- Aug 7, 2026 Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, respectively.
- Aug 7, 2026 The formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure, alongside our partners NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority, as well as Vistra's role as Helix's preferred power provider, create an exciting opportunity for the company.
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $12.51B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $15.89B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $5.65B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 1.5x |
| Terminal value | $23.83B |
| Discounted at 12.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $13.52B |
| Enterprise value | $26.03B |
| Net cash | -$19.16B |
| Equity value | $6.87B |
| Shares | 0.34B |
| Fair value per share | $20.45 |
| Against the current price of $139.81 | -85% |
2.5x terminal-year operating revenues for a merchant generator whose 2028 book is only 72% hedged. Today the equity is ~$45.6B at $135.66 on 336M shares, EV ~$65B after $19.2B of net debt, about 3.4x TTM revenues of $19.2B and ~9x 2026 midpoint adj EBITDA of $7.2B. Constellation is the nuclear-PPA analog. The tape is 38% below a $218 average target because Meta and Cogentrix are still press releases. Discount rate is 10%. Move the exit multiple before anything else: at 1.5x and at 4x the answer moves by more than a point of opening growth. GAAP revenue is a noisy base; the $472M hedge loss in Q2 is why.
Read the other way round: at $139.81 the market is paying 5.9x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Helix Digital Infrastructure
2027 Q1 → 2028 Q4Up to $1.0B commitment alongside NVIDIA, KKR and KIA. Vistra is Helix's preferred power provider. Not a disclosed MW or revenue line.
The projected path
| Quarter | Ongoing Operations | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $4.21B | $4.21B | -15% | $1.62B | $670M | $754M | +3 | $733M |
| 2026 Q4E | $4.36B | $4.36B | -5% | $1.67B | $652M | $801M | +13 | $757M |
| 2027 Q1E | $4.47B | $4.47B | -21% | $1.69B | $756M | $741M | -4 | $680M |
| 2027 Q2E | $4.54B | $4.54B | +13% | $1.71B | $734M | $771M | +30 | $688M |
| 2027 Q3E | $4.59B | $4.59B | +9% | $1.72B | $710M | $794M | +26 | $689M |
| 2027 Q4E | $4.61B | $4.61B | +6% | $1.71B | $687M | $811M | +23 | $684M |
| 2028 Q1E | $4.62B | $4.62B | +3% | $1.70B | $664M | $821M | +21 | $674M |
| 2028 Q2E | $4.60B | $4.60B | +1% | $1.69B | $642M | $827M | +19 | $660M |
| 2028 Q3E | $4.57B | $4.57B | +0% | $1.67B | $621M | $829M | +18 | $643M |
| 2028 Q4E | $4.53B | $4.53B | -2% | $1.65B | $601M | $828M | +16 | $623M |
| 2029 Q1E | $4.48B | $4.48B | -3% | $1.62B | $457M | $922M | +18 | $675M |
| 2029 Q2E | $4.42B | $4.42B | -4% | $1.60B | $440M | $915M | +17 | $651M |
| 2029 Q3E | $4.36B | $4.36B | -5% | $1.57B | $423M | $906M | +16 | $627M |
| 2029 Q4E | $4.30B | $4.30B | -5% | $1.54B | $408M | $896M | +16 | $603M |
| 2030 Q1E | $4.23B | $4.23B | -6% | $1.51B | $394M | $885M | +15 | $578M |
| 2030 Q2E | $4.15B | $4.15B | -6% | $1.48B | $381M | $872M | +15 | $554M |
| 2030 Q3E | $4.08B | $4.08B | -6% | $1.46B | $368M | $859M | +15 | $531M |
| 2030 Q4E | $4.01B | $4.01B | -7% | $1.43B | $357M | $846M | +14 | $508M |
| 2031 Q1E | $3.94B | $3.94B | -7% | $1.40B | $346M | $832M | +14 | $485M |
| 2031 Q2E | $3.86B | $3.86B | -7% | $1.37B | $336M | $817M | +14 | $464M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | all | $136.78 | Initial model. One vertical on consolidated operating revenues after eliminations, basis the June quarter at $4,017M, 2026 adj-EBITDA guide the claim, Meta PPAs the named case. |