VST · Forward model · Ongoing Operations
What has to happen in Ongoing Operations
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Ongoing Operations
Basis quarter$4.02B
Final quarter$7.10B
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix100%
Integrated retail plus generation after Asset Closure. $4,017M of GAAP operating revenues, −5.5% year over year, and $1,767M of ongoing adj EBITDA, +31%. What paces it is the fleet and the hedge book. No quarterly MW-earning series is published, so the projection is sequential growth on the filed total.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.97B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.58B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.64B
Reported
2026 Q2
$4.02B
Reported
Retail electricity (TXU, Dynegy, Ambit)Texas generation (ERCOT)East generation (PJM nuclear and gas)West generation
Sequential growth
+8.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
8% QoQ. Q3 is summer. 2025 Q3/Q2 was +17%. 8% is a milder step, not a repeat of Q1's $5.6B hedge print.
Ongoing Operations
Latest: $7.10B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $3.93B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.25B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.97B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.58B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.64B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.34B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.63B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.90B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.13B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.35B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.54B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.71B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.87B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.01B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.14B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.26B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.37B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.58B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.67B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.76B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.85B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.94B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.02B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.10B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Do not add Retail + Texas + East + West. Q2 10-Q geos sum to $6,053M before $(2,036)M of eliminations — generation sold to retail. The $4,017M is the external number.
- Opening 8% is a summer step. Combined with 44% adj-EBITDA margin it does not try to hit $7.2B of 2026 EBITDA via hedge-marked GAAP revenue. That guide is the claim, not the arithmetic of this line.
- Margin 44% is ongoing adj EBITDA $1,767M / $4,017M. GAAP operating income $553M is after D&A. Terminal 40% walks off a strong realised-price quarter.
- Q2 capex $689M is 17% of revenue including nuclear fuel. 2026 guide $1,536M is the 8% terminal. Helix's $1B sits in corporate programmes, not here.