V · Forward model · Service revenue · Bear case
What has to happen in Service revenue
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Service revenue
Basis quarter$4.92B
Final quarter$6.55B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix49%
Assessments earned for providing the Visa brand, products and network to clients, recognised on the PRIOR quarter's payments volume. The lag is disclosed in every release and is why fiscal Q3 (Apr-Jun) is the softest quarter: it is billed on the January-March spend trough.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$4.60B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$4.76B
Reported
2026 Q2
$4.98B
Reported
2026 Q3
$4.92B
Reported
Client assessments on payments volume, recognised one quarter in arrears
Sequential growth
+2.2%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
+2.2% deseasonalised. With the four other lines it prints the guide-consistent fiscal Q4 of $12,150M, +13.3% YoY.
Service revenue
Latest: $6.55B (2031Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $3.19B |
| 2022Q2 | $3.52B |
| 2022Q3 | $3.19B |
| 2022Q4 | $3.46B |
| 2023Q1 | $3.51B |
| 2023Q2 | $3.77B |
| 2023Q3 | $3.67B |
| 2023Q4 | $3.88B |
| 2024Q1 | $3.92B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.03B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.97B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.20B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.21B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.40B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.33B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.60B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.76B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.98B |
| 2026Q3 | $4.92B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.20B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.24B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.43B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.23B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.52B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.55B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.76B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.54B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.85B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.88B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.09B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.18B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.21B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.44B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.54B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.57B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.81B |
| 2031Q3E | $6.55B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Recognised on the PRIOR quarter's payments volume, which is why fiscal Q3 (April-June) is the softest quarter of Visa's year: it is billed on the January-March spend trough. Seasonality [1.000, 1.022, 0.969, 1.009] is indexed on the FISCAL label, so index 1 is the October-December quarter.
- The seasonal signal here is moderate, not strong: 5.3% amplitude against a worst-quarter window spread of 3.3%, a ratio of 1.60. It is carried because the signs are unanimous across every window and because the recognition lag that produces them is disclosed in every release, not because the ratio clears a statistical bar.
- No unit driver exists. Visa discloses payments volume only as a growth rate in its filings; the absolute figure appears on calls (`crossed $4 trillion` in the June quarter) and never in a table. Building a unit driver would mean inventing the volume series, so growth on the disclosed net line is used instead.
- Deseasonalised sequential trend is +2.74% a quarter over the last eight steps and +3.26% over the last four. The +2.2% first projected quarter sits below both, because the guide-consistent fiscal Q4 is slower than the recent run rate.