SPCX · Forward model · Starlink · Bull case
What has to happen in Starlink
Model as of
This page changes Starlink inside the complete SPCX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Starlink
Basis quarter$4.29B
Final quarter$27.68B
Implied CAGR+45%
Final revenue mix27%
The whole dish-and-antenna business: consumer broadband, the better-priced enterprise, maritime, aviation and rail book, Starshield government work, and the light direct-to-cell messaging service partners resell today. Consumer ARPU falls as emerging markets mix in; the non-consumer book is what carries the segment.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$3.00B
Estimated
2025 Q4
$3.25B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$3.50B
Estimated
2026 Q2
$4.29B
Reported
Consumer broadbandEnterprise / maritime / aviation / railGovernment (Starshield)Direct-to-cell messaging (light service, via carriers)
Subscribers
12.0M
9.2% of a 130.0M addressable base
12.0M subscribers, as disclosed with the Q2 2026 print — under 10% of the addressable base.
Addressable subscribers
130.0M
the S-curve ceiling
Households without usable fixed broadband that can bear this ARPU — not population. See the notes.
Net adds
1.5M/qtr
ramping toward 2.6M/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
1.5M a quarter today. Terminals and satellite capacity, not demand, are the binding constraint.
Net-add ceiling
2.6M/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
2.6M a quarter once V3 raises capacity per launch. Adds ramp toward this; they do not compound freely.
ARPU
$66.00/mo
drifting −2.5% per quarter, floor $45.00
$66 a month, down from $85 a year earlier. The fall is mix, not discounting.
Non-subscriber revenue
$1.91B/qtr
growing +9.0% per quarter
$1.91B a quarter of enterprise, maritime, aviation, rail and Starshield, including light direct-to-cell.
Starlink
Latest: $27.68B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $2.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.75B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.00B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.25B |
| 2026Q1 | $3.50B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.29B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.80B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.95B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.58B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.26B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.98B |
| 2028Q1E | $8.76B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.59B |
| 2028Q3E | $10.48B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.43B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.45B |
| 2029Q2E | $13.55B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.74B |
| 2029Q4E | $16.02B |
| 2030Q1E | $17.42B |
| 2030Q2E | $19.10B |
| 2030Q3E | $20.97B |
| 2030Q4E | $23.01B |
| 2031Q1E | $25.24B |
| 2031Q2E | $27.68B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Modelled bottom-up on subscribers x ARPU rather than a growth rate, because the two halves move in opposite directions: the base keeps compounding while price per user falls on mix. A single growth number would hide exactly the tension that decides this segment.
- The non-subscriber book is not derived - it is backed out as segment revenue less subscribers x ARPU, which puts it at $1.91B a quarter, about 45% of the segment against the disclosed ~42% enterprise/government share. The residual absorbs any error in the ARPU split.
- Margin glides 61% to 66% because constellation cost is largely fixed once launched, so each added subscriber and each enterprise contract drops through at high incremental margin. Capex intensity falls 34% to 22% as V3 satellites raise capacity per launch.
- The load-bearing risk is ARPU, not subscribers. Held flat at $66 instead of drifting down, this segment alone is worth materially more; at the $45 floor it is worth much less. Kuiper is the reason the floor might bind sooner than modelled.
- Today's direct-to-cell service belongs here, not in Starlink Mobile. It runs on ~650 first-generation satellites at roughly 2-4 Mbps - texting, location and light apps in dead zones - and it is sold as a bolt-on by carriers, so it is already inside this segment's non-subscriber book. About 22M monthly actives as of the August 2026 all-hands, up from ~10M earlier in the year.