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SNDK · Forward model · Edge · Bull case

What has to happen in Edge

Model as of

This page changes Edge inside the complete SNDK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SNDK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $3,711.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.89B 38% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $109.55B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Allocation persists and the NBMs turn the cycle into an annuity. Management's position is that demand exceeds supply beyond calendar 2027, that eight NBM customers have committed roughly half of FY2027 bits and two-thirds of FY2028 bits, and that $16.5bn of customer financial guarantees and $5.0bn of third-party collateral sit behind those commitments. If that holds, price does not revert on any horizon this model covers and the FY2028-FY2030 framework is a floor. This case runs revenue 1.25% a quarter above the base path, holds four more points of margin and exits at 7.5x.

Edge

Basis quarter$5.43B
Final quarter$9.89B
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix38%

Client SSD, embedded and removable flash into smartphones, PCs, tablets, automotive and robotics - the largest line at 60.6% of basis-quarter revenue. It is the purest price line in the business: FY2026 exabytes grew only high single digits while revenue per gigabyte rose almost 180%. Management says PCs and smartphones are working through a period of adjustment and expects those markets to return to growth in calendar 2027.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $1.39B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.68B Reported
2026 Q3 $3.66B Reported
2026 Q4 $5.43B Reported
Client SSD for PCsEmbedded flash for smartphones and tabletsAutomotive, robotics and on-device AI
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100) 100/qtr growing +2.0% per quarter Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Only bit growth is disclosed per end market, never a level.
Revenue per index point $54M drifting +14.0% per quarter Basis revenue $5,432M / 100 index points. Derived, not a published dollars-per-gigabyte price.
Edge

Latest: $9.89B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $1.03B
2024Q4 $1.07B
2025Q1 $1.07B
2025Q2 $1.03B
2025Q3 $927M
2025Q4 $1.10B
2026Q1 $1.39B
2026Q2 $1.68B
2026Q3 $3.66B
2026Q4 $5.43B
2027Q1E $6.40B
2027Q2E $7.15B
2027Q3E $7.71B
2027Q4E $8.13B
2028Q1E $8.43B
2028Q2E $8.66B
2028Q3E $8.83B
2028Q4E $8.96B
2029Q1E $9.07B
2029Q2E $9.17B
2029Q3E $9.25B
2029Q4E $9.33B
2030Q1E $9.40B
2030Q2E $9.47B
2030Q3E $9.54B
2030Q4E $9.61B
2031Q1E $9.68B
2031Q2E $9.75B
2031Q3E $9.82B
2031Q4E $9.89B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
  • The 180% FY2026 increase in revenue per gigabyte is the largest price move of the three lines and the one with the most to give back, which is why its terminal drift is the most negative at -2.5% a quarter.
  • The first projected quarter carries a +14.0% price drift in all three lines because the FQ1 2027 revenue guide of $10.30-10.80bn is a company number and no per-end-market guide exists; splitting it unevenly across the three would be inventing a disclosure Sandisk did not make.
  • Edge and Consumer bits cannot be separated from disclosure: only their combined 62% share of company bits follows from the 38% Datacenter figure.
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