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SNDK · Forward model · Consumer · Bull case

What has to happen in Consumer

Model as of

This page changes Consumer inside the complete SNDK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SNDK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $3,711.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $549M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $8.28B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Allocation persists and the NBMs turn the cycle into an annuity. Management's position is that demand exceeds supply beyond calendar 2027, that eight NBM customers have committed roughly half of FY2027 bits and two-thirds of FY2028 bits, and that $16.5bn of customer financial guarantees and $5.0bn of third-party collateral sit behind those commitments. If that holds, price does not revert on any horizon this model covers and the FY2028-FY2030 framework is a floor. This case runs revenue 1.25% a quarter above the base path, holds four more points of margin and exits at 7.5x.

Consumer

Basis quarter$556M
Final quarter$549M
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix2%

Retail cards, USB drives and consumer SSD - 6.2% of basis-quarter revenue and shrinking, because it is the residual claimant on the bit pool. FY2026 is the tell: Consumer exabytes fell mid-teens percent while revenue rose 29% on a low-fifties percent price increase, then the line fell 32% sequentially in a quarter the company grew 51%, as bits were pulled into Datacenter. Management calls it mix flexibility, and this is the line that gets sacrificed.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $652M Reported
2026 Q2 $907M Reported
2026 Q3 $820M Reported
2026 Q4 $556M Reported
Memory cardsUSB flash drivesConsumer and portable SSD
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100) 100/qtr growing −1.5% per quarter Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Sandisk publishes Consumer bit growth, never a bit level.
Revenue per index point $6M drifting +14.0% per quarter Basis revenue $556M / 100 index points. Derived; the basis quarter was itself a 32% sequential fall.
Consumer

Latest: $549M (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $573M
2024Q4 $523M
2025Q1 $514M
2025Q2 $598M
2025Q3 $571M
2025Q4 $585M
2026Q1 $652M
2026Q2 $907M
2026Q3 $820M
2026Q4 $556M
2027Q1E $632M
2027Q2E $683M
2027Q3E $714M
2027Q4E $729M
2028Q1E $733M
2028Q2E $730M
2028Q3E $723M
2028Q4E $712M
2029Q1E $699M
2029Q2E $686M
2029Q3E $672M
2029Q4E $658M
2030Q1E $643M
2030Q2E $629M
2030Q3E $615M
2030Q4E $601M
2031Q1E $588M
2031Q2E $575M
2031Q3E $562M
2031Q4E $549M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
  • This is the vertical where a holiday season is visible, and it is still modelled aseasonal: the research brief measured a window-to-window spread of 0.274 against an FY2025 within-year amplitude of 0.15, with only two fiscal-year windows and one of them a 53-week year. An aseasonal path is modestly wrong in a repeating way; four factors fitted to two disagreeing windows would be wrong permanently.
  • At 6.2% of basis-quarter revenue a 10% error in this line moves consolidated revenue by 0.6%, so the model spends no further complexity here.
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