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What has to happen in Edge

Model as of

This page changes Edge inside the complete SNDK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SNDK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $819.54 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.19B 38% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $43.60B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Price reverts instead of plateauing. The FY2028-FY2030 framework holds only if revenue per gigabyte stays where an acute shortage put it, and the 10-K records increases of almost 150%, almost 180% and low-fifties percent across the three lines in a single year. Supply is coming: Sandisk is raising capital spending to grow bits mid-to-high teens and so is everyone else. The contracted floor is thinner than it looks - about 19% of the $59.8bn audited RPO is recognisable within twelve months, roughly $11.4bn against a $48.96bn consensus year. This case runs revenue 3% a quarter below the base path and takes 25 points off the margin, part of the way back toward the 26-30% gross margins the business earned as recently as FQ4 2025.

Edge

Basis quarter$5.43B
Final quarter$4.19B
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix38%

Client SSD, embedded and removable flash into smartphones, PCs, tablets, automotive and robotics - the largest line at 60.6% of basis-quarter revenue. It is the purest price line in the business: FY2026 exabytes grew only high single digits while revenue per gigabyte rose almost 180%. Management says PCs and smartphones are working through a period of adjustment and expects those markets to return to growth in calendar 2027.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $1.39B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.68B Reported
2026 Q3 $3.66B Reported
2026 Q4 $5.43B Reported
Client SSD for PCsEmbedded flash for smartphones and tabletsAutomotive, robotics and on-device AI
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100) 100/qtr growing +2.0% per quarter Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Only bit growth is disclosed per end market, never a level.
Revenue per index point $54M drifting +14.0% per quarter Basis revenue $5,432M / 100 index points. Derived, not a published dollars-per-gigabyte price.
Edge

Latest: $4.19B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $1.03B
2024Q4 $1.07B
2025Q1 $1.07B
2025Q2 $1.03B
2025Q3 $927M
2025Q4 $1.10B
2026Q1 $1.39B
2026Q2 $1.68B
2026Q3 $3.66B
2026Q4 $5.43B
2027Q1E $6.13B
2027Q2E $6.56B
2027Q3E $6.78B
2027Q4E $6.85B
2028Q1E $6.80B
2028Q2E $6.69B
2028Q3E $6.54B
2028Q4E $6.36B
2029Q1E $6.17B
2029Q2E $5.97B
2029Q3E $5.77B
2029Q4E $5.58B
2030Q1E $5.38B
2030Q2E $5.20B
2030Q3E $5.02B
2030Q4E $4.84B
2031Q1E $4.67B
2031Q2E $4.51B
2031Q3E $4.35B
2031Q4E $4.19B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
  • The 180% FY2026 increase in revenue per gigabyte is the largest price move of the three lines and the one with the most to give back, which is why its terminal drift is the most negative at -2.5% a quarter.
  • The first projected quarter carries a +14.0% price drift in all three lines because the FQ1 2027 revenue guide of $10.30-10.80bn is a company number and no per-end-market guide exists; splitting it unevenly across the three would be inventing a disclosure Sandisk did not make.
  • Edge and Consumer bits cannot be separated from disclosure: only their combined 62% share of company bits follows from the 38% Datacenter figure.
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