SNDK · Forward model · Edge
What has to happen in Edge
Model as of
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Edge
Basis quarter$5.43B
Final quarter$7.71B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix38%
Client SSD, embedded and removable flash into smartphones, PCs, tablets, automotive and robotics - the largest line at 60.6% of basis-quarter revenue. It is the purest price line in the business: FY2026 exabytes grew only high single digits while revenue per gigabyte rose almost 180%. Management says PCs and smartphones are working through a period of adjustment and expects those markets to return to growth in calendar 2027.
Last four quarters
2026 Q1
$1.39B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.68B
Reported
2026 Q3
$3.66B
Reported
2026 Q4
$5.43B
Reported
Client SSD for PCsEmbedded flash for smartphones and tabletsAutomotive, robotics and on-device AI
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100)
100/qtr
growing +2.0% per quarter
Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Only bit growth is disclosed per end market, never a level.
Revenue per index point
$54M
drifting +14.0% per quarter
Basis revenue $5,432M / 100 index points. Derived, not a published dollars-per-gigabyte price.
Edge
Latest: $7.71B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $1.03B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.07B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.07B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.03B |
| 2025Q3 | $927M |
| 2025Q4 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.39B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.68B |
| 2026Q3 | $3.66B |
| 2026Q4 | $5.43B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.97B |
| 2027Q3E | $7.43B |
| 2027Q4E | $7.73B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.92B |
| 2028Q2E | $8.03B |
| 2028Q3E | $8.09B |
| 2028Q4E | $8.11B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.11B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.10B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.07B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.04B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.00B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.96B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.92B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.88B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.84B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.80B |
| 2031Q3E | $7.75B |
| 2031Q4E | $7.71B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
- The 180% FY2026 increase in revenue per gigabyte is the largest price move of the three lines and the one with the most to give back, which is why its terminal drift is the most negative at -2.5% a quarter.
- The first projected quarter carries a +14.0% price drift in all three lines because the FQ1 2027 revenue guide of $10.30-10.80bn is a company number and no per-end-market guide exists; splitting it unevenly across the three would be inventing a disclosure Sandisk did not make.
- Edge and Consumer bits cannot be separated from disclosure: only their combined 62% share of company bits follows from the 38% Datacenter figure.