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SNDK · Forward model · Consumer · Bear case

What has to happen in Consumer

Model as of

This page changes Consumer inside the complete SNDK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SNDK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $819.54 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $233M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.45B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Price reverts instead of plateauing. The FY2028-FY2030 framework holds only if revenue per gigabyte stays where an acute shortage put it, and the 10-K records increases of almost 150%, almost 180% and low-fifties percent across the three lines in a single year. Supply is coming: Sandisk is raising capital spending to grow bits mid-to-high teens and so is everyone else. The contracted floor is thinner than it looks - about 19% of the $59.8bn audited RPO is recognisable within twelve months, roughly $11.4bn against a $48.96bn consensus year. This case runs revenue 3% a quarter below the base path and takes 25 points off the margin, part of the way back toward the 26-30% gross margins the business earned as recently as FQ4 2025.

Consumer

Basis quarter$556M
Final quarter$233M
Implied CAGR−16%
Final revenue mix2%

Retail cards, USB drives and consumer SSD - 6.2% of basis-quarter revenue and shrinking, because it is the residual claimant on the bit pool. FY2026 is the tell: Consumer exabytes fell mid-teens percent while revenue rose 29% on a low-fifties percent price increase, then the line fell 32% sequentially in a quarter the company grew 51%, as bits were pulled into Datacenter. Management calls it mix flexibility, and this is the line that gets sacrificed.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $652M Reported
2026 Q2 $907M Reported
2026 Q3 $820M Reported
2026 Q4 $556M Reported
Memory cardsUSB flash drivesConsumer and portable SSD
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100) 100/qtr growing −1.5% per quarter Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Sandisk publishes Consumer bit growth, never a bit level.
Revenue per index point $6M drifting +14.0% per quarter Basis revenue $556M / 100 index points. Derived; the basis quarter was itself a 32% sequential fall.
Consumer

Latest: $233M (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $573M
2024Q4 $523M
2025Q1 $514M
2025Q2 $598M
2025Q3 $571M
2025Q4 $585M
2026Q1 $652M
2026Q2 $907M
2026Q3 $820M
2026Q4 $556M
2027Q1E $606M
2027Q2E $627M
2027Q3E $628M
2027Q4E $614M
2028Q1E $592M
2028Q2E $565M
2028Q3E $535M
2028Q4E $505M
2029Q1E $475M
2029Q2E $447M
2029Q3E $419M
2029Q4E $393M
2030Q1E $368M
2030Q2E $345M
2030Q3E $323M
2030Q4E $303M
2031Q1E $284M
2031Q2E $266M
2031Q3E $249M
2031Q4E $233M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
  • This is the vertical where a holiday season is visible, and it is still modelled aseasonal: the research brief measured a window-to-window spread of 0.274 against an FY2025 within-year amplitude of 0.15, with only two fiscal-year windows and one of them a 53-week year. An aseasonal path is modestly wrong in a repeating way; four factors fitted to two disagreeing windows would be wrong permanently.
  • At 6.2% of basis-quarter revenue a 10% error in this line moves consolidated revenue by 0.6%, so the model spends no further complexity here.
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