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SNDK · Forward model · Datacenter · Bear case

What has to happen in Datacenter

Model as of

This page changes Datacenter inside the complete SNDK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SNDK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $819.54 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $6.48B 59% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $38.47B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Price reverts instead of plateauing. The FY2028-FY2030 framework holds only if revenue per gigabyte stays where an acute shortage put it, and the 10-K records increases of almost 150%, almost 180% and low-fifties percent across the three lines in a single year. Supply is coming: Sandisk is raising capital spending to grow bits mid-to-high teens and so is everyone else. The contracted floor is thinner than it looks - about 19% of the $59.8bn audited RPO is recognisable within twelve months, roughly $11.4bn against a $48.96bn consensus year. This case runs revenue 3% a quarter below the base path and takes 25 points off the margin, part of the way back toward the 26-30% gross margins the business earned as recently as FQ4 2025.

Datacenter

Basis quarter$2.98B
Final quarter$6.48B
Implied CAGR+17%
Final revenue mix59%

Enterprise and hyperscale SSD, and the reason the stock re-rated: 12% of Sandisk's bits in Q4 FY2025, 38% one year later, $2,977M of revenue in the basis quarter against $213M a year earlier. Almost all of the NBM contracting sits here and in Edge. The risk is not demand - management says NAND stays on allocation beyond calendar 2027 - it is that this line's revenue per gigabyte was set at a shortage price.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $269M Reported
2026 Q2 $440M Reported
2026 Q3 $1.47B Reported
2026 Q4 $2.98B Reported
Compute-focused TLC enterprise SSDQLC high-capacity AI data-lake SSD (Stargate platform)Contracted NBM supply to hyperscale customers
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100) 100/qtr growing +6.5% per quarter Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Sandisk discloses bit growth per end market, never a level.
Revenue per index point $30M drifting +14.0% per quarter Basis revenue $2,977M / 100 index points. Derived, not a dollars-per-gigabyte figure Sandisk published.
Datacenter

Latest: $6.48B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $97M
2024Q4 $170M
2025Q1 $300M
2025Q2 $250M
2025Q3 $197M
2025Q4 $213M
2026Q1 $269M
2026Q2 $440M
2026Q3 $1.47B
2026Q4 $2.98B
2027Q1E $3.51B
2027Q2E $3.93B
2027Q3E $4.27B
2027Q4E $4.53B
2028Q1E $4.74B
2028Q2E $4.91B
2028Q3E $5.06B
2028Q4E $5.18B
2029Q1E $5.30B
2029Q2E $5.41B
2029Q3E $5.52B
2029Q4E $5.62B
2030Q1E $5.73B
2030Q2E $5.83B
2030Q3E $5.94B
2030Q4E $6.04B
2031Q1E $6.15B
2031Q2E $6.26B
2031Q3E $6.37B
2031Q4E $6.48B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
  • FY2026 disclosure splits this line into its two terms: exabytes shipped up almost 120% and revenue per gigabyte up almost 150%. Both are growth rates from the 10-K; neither is a level, which is why the driver runs on an index.
  • Volume grows 6.5% a quarter, faster than the company's mid-teens sellable bit growth, because the disclosed allocation shift - 12% of bits to 38% in four quarters - has to keep coming out of Edge and Consumer.
  • Economics are company-level, not segment-level. Sandisk runs a single reportable operating segment and publishes one gross margin line, so 84.6% basis and 80.0% terminal are the company's own non-GAAP gross margins applied uniformly; operating expense sits once at the corporate line, never inside a vertical.
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