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SNDK · Forward model · Datacenter · NBM Floor case

What has to happen in Datacenter

Model as of

This page changes Datacenter inside the complete SNDK model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

SNDK forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $726.22 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.24B 59% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $36.40B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The one case with a contract under it. Sandisk states a minimum of $93.9bn of contracted NBM revenue computed at floor pricing across eight customers, weighted average duration above four years, and says the economics carry attractive margins even at floor pricing. This case runs the spot market to no premium at all and lets only the contracted book carry the business: revenue converges toward the low twenties of billions a year against a $48.96bn consensus for FY2027 alone. What it does not reach: it says nothing about the roughly half of FY2027 bits and third of FY2028 bits that are not under NBM, and the floor applies to the variable pricing component only, so the realised floor depends on a fixed/variable split Sandisk has not disclosed.

Datacenter

Basis quarter$2.98B
Final quarter$3.24B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix59%

Enterprise and hyperscale SSD, and the reason the stock re-rated: 12% of Sandisk's bits in Q4 FY2025, 38% one year later, $2,977M of revenue in the basis quarter against $213M a year earlier. Almost all of the NBM contracting sits here and in Edge. The risk is not demand - management says NAND stays on allocation beyond calendar 2027 - it is that this line's revenue per gigabyte was set at a shortage price.

Last four quarters
2026 Q1 $269M Reported
2026 Q2 $440M Reported
2026 Q3 $1.47B Reported
2026 Q4 $2.98B Reported
Compute-focused TLC enterprise SSDQLC high-capacity AI data-lake SSD (Stargate platform)Contracted NBM supply to hyperscale customers
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100) 100/qtr growing +6.5% per quarter Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Sandisk discloses bit growth per end market, never a level.
Revenue per index point $30M drifting +14.0% per quarter Basis revenue $2,977M / 100 index points. Derived, not a dollars-per-gigabyte figure Sandisk published.
Datacenter

Latest: $3.24B (2031Q4E)

Period Value
2024Q3 $97M
2024Q4 $170M
2025Q1 $300M
2025Q2 $250M
2025Q3 $197M
2025Q4 $213M
2026Q1 $269M
2026Q2 $440M
2026Q3 $1.47B
2026Q4 $2.98B
2027Q1E $3.39B
2027Q2E $3.67B
2027Q3E $3.85B
2027Q4E $3.94B
2028Q1E $3.99B
2028Q2E $3.99B
2028Q3E $3.97B
2028Q4E $3.93B
2029Q1E $3.88B
2029Q2E $3.83B
2029Q3E $3.77B
2029Q4E $3.71B
2030Q1E $3.65B
2030Q2E $3.59B
2030Q3E $3.53B
2030Q4E $3.47B
2031Q1E $3.41B
2031Q2E $3.36B
2031Q3E $3.30B
2031Q4E $3.24B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
  • FY2026 disclosure splits this line into its two terms: exabytes shipped up almost 120% and revenue per gigabyte up almost 150%. Both are growth rates from the 10-K; neither is a level, which is why the driver runs on an index.
  • Volume grows 6.5% a quarter, faster than the company's mid-teens sellable bit growth, because the disclosed allocation shift - 12% of bits to 38% in four quarters - has to keep coming out of Edge and Consumer.
  • Economics are company-level, not segment-level. Sandisk runs a single reportable operating segment and publishes one gross margin line, so 84.6% basis and 80.0% terminal are the company's own non-GAAP gross margins applied uniformly; operating expense sits once at the corporate line, never inside a vertical.
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