SNDK · Forward model · Datacenter
What has to happen in Datacenter
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Datacenter
Basis quarter$2.98B
Final quarter$11.92B
Implied CAGR+32%
Final revenue mix59%
Enterprise and hyperscale SSD, and the reason the stock re-rated: 12% of Sandisk's bits in Q4 FY2025, 38% one year later, $2,977M of revenue in the basis quarter against $213M a year earlier. Almost all of the NBM contracting sits here and in Edge. The risk is not demand - management says NAND stays on allocation beyond calendar 2027 - it is that this line's revenue per gigabyte was set at a shortage price.
Last four quarters
2026 Q1
$269M
Reported
2026 Q2
$440M
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.47B
Reported
2026 Q4
$2.98B
Reported
Compute-focused TLC enterprise SSDQLC high-capacity AI data-lake SSD (Stargate platform)Contracted NBM supply to hyperscale customers
Bit index (2026 Q4 = 100)
100/qtr
growing +6.5% per quarter
Index, not exabytes: 2026 Q4 = 100. Sandisk discloses bit growth per end market, never a level.
Revenue per index point
$30M
drifting +14.0% per quarter
Basis revenue $2,977M / 100 index points. Derived, not a dollars-per-gigabyte figure Sandisk published.
Datacenter
Latest: $11.92B (2031Q4E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | $97M |
| 2024Q4 | $170M |
| 2025Q1 | $300M |
| 2025Q2 | $250M |
| 2025Q3 | $197M |
| 2025Q4 | $213M |
| 2026Q1 | $269M |
| 2026Q2 | $440M |
| 2026Q3 | $1.47B |
| 2026Q4 | $2.98B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.61B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.18B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.68B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.12B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.52B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.89B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.26B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.61B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.97B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.34B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.72B |
| 2029Q4E | $8.10B |
| 2030Q1E | $8.51B |
| 2030Q2E | $8.93B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.37B |
| 2030Q4E | $9.84B |
| 2031Q1E | $10.32B |
| 2031Q2E | $10.83B |
| 2031Q3E | $11.36B |
| 2031Q4E | $11.92B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Units are an INDEX, not exabytes: the basis quarter is 100 and price per index point is that quarter's revenue divided by 100. Sandisk discloses bit GROWTH by end market and has never published an exabyte LEVEL, so a physical unit count here would be an invented disclosure.
- FY2026 disclosure splits this line into its two terms: exabytes shipped up almost 120% and revenue per gigabyte up almost 150%. Both are growth rates from the 10-K; neither is a level, which is why the driver runs on an index.
- Volume grows 6.5% a quarter, faster than the company's mid-teens sellable bit growth, because the disclosed allocation shift - 12% of bits to 38% in four quarters - has to keep coming out of Edge and Consumer.
- Economics are company-level, not segment-level. Sandisk runs a single reportable operating segment and publishes one gross margin line, so 84.6% basis and 80.0% terminal are the company's own non-GAAP gross margins applied uniformly; operating expense sits once at the corporate line, never inside a vertical.