RKLB · Forward model · Space Systems
What has to happen in Space Systems
Model as of
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Space Systems
Basis quarter$189M
Final quarter$532M
Implied CAGR+23%
Final revenue mix45%
Satellites, buses, components, separation systems, solar arrays, radios and flight software, sold to commercial and government customers and increasingly as prime contractor rather than supplier. It is the larger segment and the one carrying the $2.36bn backlog.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$114M
Reported
2025 Q4
$104M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$137M
Reported
2026 Q2
$189M
Reported
Spacecraft and constellation prime contractsComponents and subsystemsSoftware and mission services
Sequential growth
+9.0%/qtr
decaying toward +3.0%
Below the 38.6% the June quarter jumped and the ~13% a quarter the trailing year implies; one quarter is not a trend.
Space Systems
Latest: $532M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q2 | $40M |
| 2023Q3 | $46M |
| 2023Q4 | $52M |
| 2024Q1 | $60M |
| 2024Q2 | $77M |
| 2024Q3 | $84M |
| 2024Q4 | $90M |
| 2025Q1 | $87M |
| 2025Q2 | $98M |
| 2025Q3 | $114M |
| 2025Q4 | $104M |
| 2026Q1 | $137M |
| 2026Q2 | $189M |
| 2026Q3E | $207M |
| 2026Q4E | $224M |
| 2027Q1E | $241M |
| 2027Q2E | $258M |
| 2027Q3E | $275M |
| 2027Q4E | $292M |
| 2028Q1E | $309M |
| 2028Q2E | $325M |
| 2028Q3E | $342M |
| 2028Q4E | $359M |
| 2029Q1E | $376M |
| 2029Q2E | $393M |
| 2029Q3E | $409M |
| 2029Q4E | $426M |
| 2030Q1E | $443M |
| 2030Q2E | $461M |
| 2030Q3E | $478M |
| 2030Q4E | $496M |
| 2031Q1E | $514M |
| 2031Q2E | $532M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Growth is the honest driver here: the segment reports no unit count, no per-quarter backlog conversion and no price, so nothing better is knowable from what Rocket Lab discloses.
- Segment gross margin stands in for EBITDA margin, as in Launch Services, because operating expenses are not disclosed by segment and all of them sit in corporate overhead.
- Mynaric and Motiv both closed inside the reported history, so this growth rate blends organic and acquired revenue and the disclosure does not let the model separate them.