QCOM · Forward model · Data Center and other nonreportable segments
What has to happen in Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Model as of
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Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Basis quarter$165M
Final quarter$4.61B
Implied CAGR+130%
Final revenue mix30%
The Alphawave-anchored data-centre push plus Qualcomm Government Technologies, reported together as one nonreportable line. Management's largest forward claim rests entirely here: $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and more than $15 billion in fiscal 2029, from a line that was $165M last quarter.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$40M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$47M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$141M
Estimated
2026 Q3
$165M
Reported
Data Center (Dragonfly CPU, Alphawave high-speed connectivity IP, AI inference)QGOV (Qualcomm Government Technologies)
Sequential growth
+8.5%/qtr
decaying toward +14.0%
8.5% sequential into September, which holds the line near its $179M implied by the 24% non-handset growth bridge.
Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Latest: $4.61B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $47M |
| 2023Q4 | −$5M |
| 2024Q1 | $52M |
| 2024Q2 | $45M |
| 2024Q3 | $51M |
| 2024Q4 | $45M |
| 2025Q1 | $50M |
| 2025Q2 | $48M |
| 2025Q3 | $54M |
| 2025Q4 | $40M |
| 2026Q1 | $47M |
| 2026Q2 | $141M |
| 2026Q3 | $165M |
| 2026Q4E | $179M |
| 2027Q1E | $790M |
| 2027Q2E | $880M |
| 2027Q3E | $988M |
| 2027Q4E | $1.11B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.26B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.43B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.63B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.85B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.11B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.40B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.73B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.11B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.55B |
| 2030Q2E | $4.04B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.61B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- BOUNDARY, and it is important. Qualcomm does not disclose Data Center revenue as a separate line anywhere. It discloses the combined nonreportable segment revenue - $165M for the quarter, $353M for the nine months - which also contains QGOV, and separately a Data Center year-over-year increment of '$88 million in higher equipment and services revenues from our Data Center segment, primarily driven by our acquisition of Alphawave'. The $5B and $15B targets are management's for the Data Center portion only; this vertical models the combined line and does not split QGOV out, because that split is not published.
- The +300% step in the December quarter is the launch, not a growth rate. Palkhiwala: 'we expect to start seeing revenue from both of them starting in the December quarter'; Amon: 'Our 2 near-term custom silicon wins will be revenue generating in the December quarter, and we have begun wafer production.' A dated step-in of contracted programmes is a level change, and a smooth exponential off a $165M base cannot represent it - which is why the step is a separate field here.
- The base case deliberately lands below management on both dated targets: $3,772M of fiscal 2027 revenue against the $5 billion target, and $10,352M of fiscal 2029 against the more-than-$15 billion one - and both of those model figures still include QGOV, which the targets do not. The bull case is where the targets themselves live. The terminal rate of 14% a quarter is not a free assumption: management's own $5 billion to $15 billion over two fiscal years is about 73% compound annual growth, or 14.6% a quarter, so this line holds management's shape and haircuts its level rather than inventing a different curve.
- Seasonality is not carried and no factors could honestly be fitted. This is a $40-165M residual that was step-changed by the Alphawave close on 18 December 2025 and is about to be step-changed again by the custom-silicon launch. Its variation is acquisition and programme timing; any four factors fitted to it would be noise.
- Economics start deeply negative because they are: the 10-Q reports nonreportable segment EBT of -$214M on $165M of revenue, a -129.7% margin. The 30%-a-quarter glide takes that to roughly break-even during fiscal 2028 and to the low teens by fiscal 2029, which is an assumption about operating leverage at scale rather than a disclosure. What is disclosed is only the direction: management guides that this ramp is 'a drag of 1.5% to 2% on the weighted average gross margin' as it grows.
- The prior-year figures here are derived, not reported, and are marked estimated: they are residuals from the release tables, validated against the 10-Q rather than assumed. The three fiscal 2026 quarterly residuals (47 + 141 + 165) sum to the disclosed nine-month $353M, and the fiscal 2025 equivalents sum to their disclosed $152M once the $143M unallocated licensing settlement is removed.