QCOM · Forward model
Revenue by vertical, 16 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
What is reported and what is not. Qualcomm itself disaggregates QCT into Handsets, Automotive and IoT in every quarterly Exhibit 99.1, and reports QTL and a nonreportable line separately, so all five verticals here are published lines rather than apportioned ones. Across the thirteen quarters carried, Handsets + Automotive + IoT + QTL + nonreportable equals reported total revenue to the dollar in twelve of them; fiscal 2025 Q2 is $143M short because a licensing settlement that quarter was recorded outside every segment, so the consolidated history below reads $10,836M against the $10,979M Qualcomm reported. The nonreportable line before fiscal 2026 is a residual derived from the release tables and is marked estimated; it was validated against the 10-Q's disclosed nine-month totals rather than assumed. Two splits were deliberately refused: Apple out of Handsets (the 10-K reports its three 10%-or-more customers only as unnamed 21%/20%/13%) and Data Center out of the nonreportable line (Qualcomm discloses only the combined figure plus a year-over-year Data Center increment). Every per-stream margin here is an assumption, because Qualcomm reports EBT for QCT as a whole and never by revenue stream. Three EPS bases are in play for this company - GAAP $1.87, company Non-GAAP $2.21 and a third-party adjusted $1.53 for the basis quarter - and none of them is used as a model input; this model runs on revenue, segment EBT margins and cash taxes at Qualcomm's own fixed 12.5% Non-GAAP rate.
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Latest: $15.27B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $8.45B |
| 2023Q4 | $8.63B |
| 2024Q1 | $9.94B |
| 2024Q2 | $9.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $9.39B |
| 2024Q4 | $10.24B |
| 2025Q1 | $11.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.84B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.37B |
| 2025Q4 | $11.27B |
| 2026Q1 | $12.25B |
| 2026Q2 | $10.60B |
| 2026Q3 | $9.95B |
| 2026Q4E | $10.24B |
| 2027Q1E | $10.21B |
| 2027Q2E | $9.85B |
| 2027Q3E | $9.78B |
| 2027Q4E | $10.39B |
| 2028Q1E | $11.15B |
| 2028Q2E | $10.94B |
| 2028Q3E | $10.99B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.73B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.61B |
| 2029Q2E | $12.53B |
| 2029Q3E | $12.73B |
| 2029Q4E | $13.63B |
| 2030Q1E | $14.72B |
| 2030Q2E | $14.83B |
| 2030Q3E | $15.27B |
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The disclosed reason handsets fall
- Nov 5, 2025 we expect that Apple will increasingly use its own modem products, rather than our products, in its future devices, which will have a significant negative impact on our QCT revenues, results of operations and cash flows
- Jul 29, 2026 our share for upcoming iPhone launch is expected to be materially lower than our prior estimate of 20%
- Jul 29, 2026 lower chipset shipments to certain major OEMs (primarily driven by customers adjusting build plans to reduce their inventory levels as a result of the negative effects of recent memory supply constraints and related price increases)
- Jul 29, 2026 a drag of 1.5% to 2% on the weighted average gross margin
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The Investor Day targets this case reaches
- Jun 24, 2026 total non-handset revenues growing to $40 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 Data Center revenues: More than $15 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 Automotive revenues: $10 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 IoT revenues: More than $14 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 Handsets: To represent approximately one-third of QCT revenues by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 more than $18 non-GAAP EPS in fiscal 2029
Amon case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Amon column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The claim under test
- Jul 29, 2026 total non-handset revenues growing to $40 billion by fiscal 2029 - nearly double the target we shared in November 2024
- Jul 29, 2026 we expect year-over-year growth in non-handset revenues, including Data Center, to accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to greater than 60% in fiscal 2027
- Aug 7, 2026 We expect this growth from non-handset revenues in fiscal '27 to replace total Apple product revenues in '26.
- Aug 7, 2026 data center revenue growth to $5 billion in fiscal '27 and $15 billion in fiscal '29
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 9.0% a year with an exit multiple of 4.0x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 16 quarters | $21.57B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $58.45B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $11.78B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 4.0x |
| Terminal value | $233.79B |
| Discounted at 9.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $165.62B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 88% |
| Enterprise value | $187.19B |
| Net cash | −$6.97B |
| Equity value | $180.23B |
| Shares | 1.07B |
| Fair value per share | $168.59 |
| Against the deployed price of $184.04, as of | −8% |
The exit multiple is the assumption doing nearly all of the work, and it is anchored to Qualcomm's own current multiple rather than to an unverified peer set: 4.0x terminal revenue against the 4.13x EV/TTM revenue the shares trade at today. On this base case the last four projected quarters carry $58.4B of revenue and $11.8B of EBITDA, so 4.0x revenue is 19.8x that terminal EBITDA. The result is $168.59 a share against the $163.72 close of 26 August 2026 that this model carries - a 3.0% gap, which is another way of saying the market is roughly paying for this path already. The sensitivity is almost entirely in the multiple: 2.5x gives $110, 3.0x gives $130, 4.0x gives $169, 5.0x gives $207, and it takes only 3.87x to reach today's price. The discount rate barely matters by comparison - 7% gives $181 and 12% gives $152 - because 88.5% of the enterprise value is terminal, which is what a sixteen-quarter horizon on a business whose largest line is shrinking looks like. What this valuation does NOT charge: nothing for QSI, whose +$768M of EBT in the basis quarter is excluded as non-operating investment gains, and no cash interest on the $15.3B of debt - the $6,966M of net debt is netted off the equity instead. What it DOES charge, unusually, is share-based compensation: the vertical margins here are Qualcomm's own segment EBT margins, so the model's free cash flow is struck after the roughly $860M a quarter of stock compensation that reported free cash flow adds back. That is why this model's free cash flow margin is about 15% in the first projected quarter against the 23.6% the trailing twelve months of reported free cash flow shows, and the two numbers are not comparable.
Read the other way round: at $184.04 the market is paying 4.4x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 16 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | QCT Handsets | QCT Automotive | QCT IoT | QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) | Data Center and other nonreportable segments | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q4E | $5.15B | $1.68B | $1.87B | $1.36B | $179M | $10.24B | −9% | $2.27B | $508M | $1.54B | +6 | $1.51B |
| 2027 Q1E | $4.28B | $1.78B | $1.92B | $1.44B | $790M | $10.21B | −17% | $1.87B | $499M | $1.20B | −5 | $1.15B |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.89B | $1.86B | $1.97B | $1.24B | $880M | $9.85B | −7% | $1.84B | $485M | $1.19B | +5 | $1.11B |
| 2027 Q3E | $3.62B | $1.94B | $2.03B | $1.21B | $988M | $9.78B | −2% | $1.90B | $479M | $1.25B | +11 | $1.14B |
| 2027 Q4E | $3.85B | $2.02B | $2.08B | $1.32B | $1.11B | $10.39B | +1% | $2.14B | $504M | $1.43B | +15 | $1.28B |
| 2028 Q1E | $4.22B | $2.09B | $2.14B | $1.43B | $1.26B | $11.15B | +9% | $2.38B | $537M | $1.61B | +24 | $1.41B |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.89B | $2.16B | $2.21B | $1.25B | $1.43B | $10.94B | +11% | $2.29B | $533M | $1.54B | +25 | $1.32B |
| 2028 Q3E | $3.65B | $2.22B | $2.27B | $1.22B | $1.63B | $10.99B | +12% | $2.31B | $536M | $1.55B | +27 | $1.31B |
| 2028 Q4E | $3.91B | $2.29B | $2.34B | $1.34B | $1.85B | $11.73B | +13% | $2.51B | $568M | $1.70B | +27 | $1.40B |
| 2029 Q1E | $4.29B | $2.35B | $2.41B | $1.46B | $2.11B | $12.61B | +13% | $2.73B | $608M | $1.86B | +28 | $1.50B |
| 2029 Q2E | $3.97B | $2.42B | $2.48B | $1.27B | $2.40B | $12.53B | +15% | $2.62B | $613M | $1.76B | +29 | $1.39B |
| 2029 Q3E | $3.72B | $2.48B | $2.55B | $1.24B | $2.73B | $12.73B | +16% | $2.63B | $625M | $1.75B | +30 | $1.35B |
| 2029 Q4E | $3.99B | $2.54B | $2.63B | $1.37B | $3.11B | $13.63B | +16% | $2.83B | $667M | $1.89B | +30 | $1.43B |
| 2030 Q1E | $4.38B | $2.60B | $2.71B | $1.48B | $3.55B | $14.72B | +17% | $3.05B | $720M | $2.04B | +31 | $1.51B |
| 2030 Q2E | $4.05B | $2.66B | $2.79B | $1.30B | $4.04B | $14.83B | +18% | $2.95B | $737M | $1.93B | +31 | $1.40B |
| 2030 Q3E | $3.80B | $2.72B | $2.87B | $1.27B | $4.61B | $15.27B | +20% | $2.96B | $764M | $1.92B | +33 | $1.36B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $168.59 | First cut, built on the fiscal 2026 Q3 release of 29 July 2026 and the verified research brief of 27 August 2026. Five verticals, all of them lines Qualcomm publishes: Handsets, Automotive and IoT from the Exhibit 99.1 QCT revenue-streams table, QTL from the segment table, and the nonreportable line (Data Center plus QGOV) as a residual validated against the 10-Q's nine-month totals. Seasonality was derived per vertical from complete fiscal-year windows and carried on exactly two of them - Handsets and QTL, where the mechanism is disclosed and the windows agree - and refused on Automotive, IoT and the data-centre line, where window-to-window spread exceeds the signal. Two disclosed, dated level steps land in the December 2026 quarter rather than being smeared into a growth rate: -22% on Handsets for the guided Apple decline, and +300% on the nonreportable line for the two custom-silicon programmes management says begin generating revenue that quarter. |