QCOM · Forward model · QCT IoT
What has to happen in QCT IoT
Model as of
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QCT IoT
Basis quarter$1.83B
Final quarter$2.87B
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix19%
Personal AI and compute devices including Snapdragon X PC platforms and XR, plus industrial, networking and robotics silicon under the Dragonwing brand. A recovery-plus-mix line rather than a cyclical one, and the least-evidenced leg of the $40 billion non-handset target.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$1.81B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.69B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.73B
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.83B
Reported
Consumer IoT / personal AI and compute (including PCs and XR)Industrial IoT, networking and roboticsDragonwing edge platforms
Sequential growth
+2.4%/qtr
decaying toward +3.0%
2.4% sequential, the pace of the last three printed quarters (1,688 to 1,726 to 1,830), not a target-implied rate.
QCT IoT
Latest: $2.87B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.49B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.38B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.14B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.24B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.36B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.55B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.58B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.81B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.69B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.73B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.83B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.87B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.92B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.97B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.03B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.08B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.14B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.21B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.27B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.34B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.41B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.48B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.55B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.63B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.79B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.87B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality tested and NOT carried. The two positions with any apparent signal are the two with the largest spread - December 0.293 and September 0.310 - and fiscal 2023 inverts the sign of both, with the December factor running 1.133, 0.839 and 0.936 across the three windows. Fiscal 2024, 2025 and 2026 all rise through the fiscal year, but that is inseparable from the secular recovery off the fiscal 2023 inventory drawdown. Two upward-trending windows cannot separate season from trend.
- The 2.4% first step continues the sequential pace of the last three quarters (1,688 to 1,726 to 1,830) rather than reaching for the target. Management's 'More than $14 billion by fiscal 2029' against roughly a $7.0 billion fiscal 2026 needs about 19% compound annual growth from a line that just delivered 9% year over year; this base case deliberately lands well short of it and the bull case is where the target lives.
- The one disclosed forward datum here is a pipeline, not revenue: Amon on the fiscal 2026 Q3 call said the 'industrial design win pipeline exceeds $7 billion with over $3.5 billion in design wins secured this fiscal year'. Design wins are neither dated nor contracted revenue, so they inform the terminal rate rather than driving it.
- No unit or attach-rate disclosure exists for IoT; the 10-Q attributes growth only to 'an increase in revenues per unit primarily driven by favorable mix'. A growth rate off the disclosed revenue base is the only honest driver kind.