QCOM · Forward model · Data Center and other nonreportable segments · Bull case
What has to happen in Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Model as of
This page changes Data Center and other nonreportable segments inside the complete QCOM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Basis quarter$165M
Final quarter$7.93B
Implied CAGR+163%
Final revenue mix40%
The Alphawave-anchored data-centre push plus Qualcomm Government Technologies, reported together as one nonreportable line. Management's largest forward claim rests entirely here: $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and more than $15 billion in fiscal 2029, from a line that was $165M last quarter.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$40M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$47M
Estimated
2026 Q2
$141M
Estimated
2026 Q3
$165M
Reported
Data Center (Dragonfly CPU, Alphawave high-speed connectivity IP, AI inference)QGOV (Qualcomm Government Technologies)
Sequential growth
+8.5%/qtr
decaying toward +14.0%
8.5% sequential into September, which holds the line near its $179M implied by the 24% non-handset growth bridge.
Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Latest: $7.93B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $47M |
| 2023Q4 | −$5M |
| 2024Q1 | $52M |
| 2024Q2 | $45M |
| 2024Q3 | $51M |
| 2024Q4 | $45M |
| 2025Q1 | $50M |
| 2025Q2 | $48M |
| 2025Q3 | $54M |
| 2025Q4 | $40M |
| 2026Q1 | $47M |
| 2026Q2 | $141M |
| 2026Q3 | $165M |
| 2026Q4E | $185M |
| 2027Q1E | $845M |
| 2027Q2E | $974M |
| 2027Q3E | $1.13B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.32B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.55B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.82B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.51B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.96B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.48B |
| 2029Q3E | $4.11B |
| 2029Q4E | $4.84B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.71B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.73B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.93B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- BOUNDARY, and it is important. Qualcomm does not disclose Data Center revenue as a separate line anywhere. It discloses the combined nonreportable segment revenue - $165M for the quarter, $353M for the nine months - which also contains QGOV, and separately a Data Center year-over-year increment of '$88 million in higher equipment and services revenues from our Data Center segment, primarily driven by our acquisition of Alphawave'. The $5B and $15B targets are management's for the Data Center portion only; this vertical models the combined line and does not split QGOV out, because that split is not published.
- The +300% step in the December quarter is the launch, not a growth rate. Palkhiwala: 'we expect to start seeing revenue from both of them starting in the December quarter'; Amon: 'Our 2 near-term custom silicon wins will be revenue generating in the December quarter, and we have begun wafer production.' A dated step-in of contracted programmes is a level change, and a smooth exponential off a $165M base cannot represent it - which is why the step is a separate field here.
- The base case deliberately lands below management on both dated targets: $3,772M of fiscal 2027 revenue against the $5 billion target, and $10,352M of fiscal 2029 against the more-than-$15 billion one - and both of those model figures still include QGOV, which the targets do not. The bull case is where the targets themselves live. The terminal rate of 14% a quarter is not a free assumption: management's own $5 billion to $15 billion over two fiscal years is about 73% compound annual growth, or 14.6% a quarter, so this line holds management's shape and haircuts its level rather than inventing a different curve.
- Seasonality is not carried and no factors could honestly be fitted. This is a $40-165M residual that was step-changed by the Alphawave close on 18 December 2025 and is about to be step-changed again by the custom-silicon launch. Its variation is acquisition and programme timing; any four factors fitted to it would be noise.
- Economics start deeply negative because they are: the 10-Q reports nonreportable segment EBT of -$214M on $165M of revenue, a -129.7% margin. The 30%-a-quarter glide takes that to roughly break-even during fiscal 2028 and to the low teens by fiscal 2029, which is an assumption about operating leverage at scale rather than a disclosure. What is disclosed is only the direction: management guides that this ramp is 'a drag of 1.5% to 2% on the weighted average gross margin' as it grows.
- The prior-year figures here are derived, not reported, and are marked estimated: they are residuals from the release tables, validated against the 10-Q rather than assumed. The three fiscal 2026 quarterly residuals (47 + 141 + 165) sum to the disclosed nine-month $353M, and the fiscal 2025 equivalents sum to their disclosed $152M once the $143M unallocated licensing settlement is removed.