QCOM · Forward model · QCT Automotive
What has to happen in QCT Automotive
Model as of
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QCT Automotive
Basis quarter$1.59B
Final quarter$2.72B
Implied CAGR+14%
Final revenue mix18%
Snapdragon Digital Chassis content - digital cockpit, telematics and Snapdragon Ride ADAS - recognised as vehicles launch. A secular content-per-vehicle ramp converting a disclosed design-win pipeline rather than a cyclical line, and the only vertical here that has grown every single quarter for three years.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$1.05B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.10B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.33B
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.59B
Reported
Snapdragon Digital CockpitADAS/AD (Snapdragon Ride)Automotive telematics and connectivity
Sequential growth
+6.1%/qtr
decaying toward +2.1%
6.1% sequential, which is the guided 'approximately 60% year-over-year' September quarter off the $1,053M of fiscal 2025 Q4.
QCT Automotive
Latest: $2.72B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $434M |
| 2023Q4 | $535M |
| 2024Q1 | $598M |
| 2024Q2 | $603M |
| 2024Q3 | $811M |
| 2024Q4 | $899M |
| 2025Q1 | $961M |
| 2025Q2 | $959M |
| 2025Q3 | $984M |
| 2025Q4 | $1.05B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.33B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.59B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.78B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.86B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.94B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.02B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.09B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.16B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.22B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.29B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.35B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.42B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.54B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.60B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.66B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.72B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality tested and NOT carried, on the brief's own evidence. Window-to-window spread is 0.153/0.141/0.187/0.171 index points, larger than the deviation from 1.0 at every position, and the December factor swings from 0.974 in fiscal 2023 to 0.822 in fiscal 2024. The apparent September strength is within-year trend leakage from a line that rises monotonically inside every fiscal year, not a season.
- The first sequential step of 6.1% is calibrated to Palkhiwala's guidance, not to consensus: 'QCT Automotive, we expect another record quarter with approximately 60% year-over-year revenue growth', which off the $1,053M of fiscal 2025 Q4 is about $1,685M. Amon separately guided 'annualized sales of approximately $7 billion exiting fiscal '26', which the same quarter satisfies.
- The decay is set so this line decelerates hard rather than extrapolating the 61% just delivered. Management's own $10 billion by fiscal 2029 against a $7 billion annualised exit rate is roughly 13% compound annual growth - the target itself is a deceleration, and the base case here lands below it. The $65 billion design-win pipeline disclosed at the June 2026 Investor Day is an estimate of future programme size, not convertible backlog, so it is not used as a driver.
- No unit driver is available: the 10-Q attributes the $604M year-over-year increase to '$381 million increase in revenues per unit driven by favorable mix and higher average selling prices and $223 million in higher shipments' - dollars, never vehicle counts. Growth off the disclosed revenue base is the only sourceable kind.