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What has to happen in QCT Automotive

Model as of

This page changes QCT Automotive inside the complete QCOM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

QCOM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $83.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.14B 22% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.69B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Apple insourcing runs faster than the guided December step implies and takes the residual share to near zero across fiscal 2027 and 2028, while the data-centre ramp slips past fiscal 2027. Handsets fall through $4B a quarter and the QCT EBT margin, already down four points year over year on wafer, packaging and memory input costs, compresses further under the 1.5 to 2 point gross-margin drag management says the data-centre ramp itself carries. The exit multiple derates with the growth story.

QCT Automotive

Basis quarter$1.59B
Final quarter$2.14B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix22%

Snapdragon Digital Chassis content - digital cockpit, telematics and Snapdragon Ride ADAS - recognised as vehicles launch. A secular content-per-vehicle ramp converting a disclosed design-win pipeline rather than a cyclical line, and the only vertical here that has grown every single quarter for three years.

Last four quarters
2025 Q4 $1.05B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.10B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.33B Reported
2026 Q3 $1.59B Reported
Snapdragon Digital CockpitADAS/AD (Snapdragon Ride)Automotive telematics and connectivity
Sequential growth +6.1%/qtr decaying toward +2.1% 6.1% sequential, which is the guided 'approximately 60% year-over-year' September quarter off the $1,053M of fiscal 2025 Q4.
QCT Automotive

Latest: $2.14B (2030Q3E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $434M
2023Q4 $535M
2024Q1 $598M
2024Q2 $603M
2024Q3 $811M
2024Q4 $899M
2025Q1 $961M
2025Q2 $959M
2025Q3 $984M
2025Q4 $1.05B
2026Q1 $1.10B
2026Q2 $1.33B
2026Q3 $1.59B
2026Q4E $1.66B
2027Q1E $1.72B
2027Q2E $1.78B
2027Q3E $1.83B
2027Q4E $1.87B
2028Q1E $1.91B
2028Q2E $1.94B
2028Q3E $1.97B
2028Q4E $2.00B
2029Q1E $2.02B
2029Q2E $2.05B
2029Q3E $2.07B
2029Q4E $2.09B
2030Q1E $2.10B
2030Q2E $2.12B
2030Q3E $2.14B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality tested and NOT carried, on the brief's own evidence. Window-to-window spread is 0.153/0.141/0.187/0.171 index points, larger than the deviation from 1.0 at every position, and the December factor swings from 0.974 in fiscal 2023 to 0.822 in fiscal 2024. The apparent September strength is within-year trend leakage from a line that rises monotonically inside every fiscal year, not a season.
  • The first sequential step of 6.1% is calibrated to Palkhiwala's guidance, not to consensus: 'QCT Automotive, we expect another record quarter with approximately 60% year-over-year revenue growth', which off the $1,053M of fiscal 2025 Q4 is about $1,685M. Amon separately guided 'annualized sales of approximately $7 billion exiting fiscal '26', which the same quarter satisfies.
  • The decay is set so this line decelerates hard rather than extrapolating the 61% just delivered. Management's own $10 billion by fiscal 2029 against a $7 billion annualised exit rate is roughly 13% compound annual growth - the target itself is a deceleration, and the base case here lands below it. The $65 billion design-win pipeline disclosed at the June 2026 Investor Day is an estimate of future programme size, not convertible backlog, so it is not used as a driver.
  • No unit driver is available: the 10-Q attributes the $604M year-over-year increase to '$381 million increase in revenues per unit driven by favorable mix and higher average selling prices and $223 million in higher shipments' - dollars, never vehicle counts. Growth off the disclosed revenue base is the only sourceable kind.
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