QCOM · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 16 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
What is reported and what is not. Qualcomm itself disaggregates QCT into Handsets, Automotive and IoT in every quarterly Exhibit 99.1, and reports QTL and a nonreportable line separately, so all five verticals here are published lines rather than apportioned ones. Across the thirteen quarters carried, Handsets + Automotive + IoT + QTL + nonreportable equals reported total revenue to the dollar in twelve of them; fiscal 2025 Q2 is $143M short because a licensing settlement that quarter was recorded outside every segment, so the consolidated history below reads $10,836M against the $10,979M Qualcomm reported. The nonreportable line before fiscal 2026 is a residual derived from the release tables and is marked estimated; it was validated against the 10-Q's disclosed nine-month totals rather than assumed. Two splits were deliberately refused: Apple out of Handsets (the 10-K reports its three 10%-or-more customers only as unnamed 21%/20%/13%) and Data Center out of the nonreportable line (Qualcomm discloses only the combined figure plus a year-over-year Data Center increment). Every per-stream margin here is an assumption, because Qualcomm reports EBT for QCT as a whole and never by revenue stream. Three EPS bases are in play for this company - GAAP $1.87, company Non-GAAP $2.21 and a third-party adjusted $1.53 for the basis quarter - and none of them is used as a model input; this model runs on revenue, segment EBT margins and cash taxes at Qualcomm's own fixed 12.5% Non-GAAP rate.
Apple insourcing runs faster than the guided December step implies and takes the residual share to near zero across fiscal 2027 and 2028, while the data-centre ramp slips past fiscal 2027. Handsets fall through $4B a quarter and the QCT EBT margin, already down four points year over year on wafer, packaging and memory input costs, compresses further under the 1.5 to 2 point gross-margin drag management says the data-centre ramp itself carries. The exit multiple derates with the growth story.
Latest: $9.92B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $8.45B |
| 2023Q4 | $8.63B |
| 2024Q1 | $9.94B |
| 2024Q2 | $9.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $9.39B |
| 2024Q4 | $10.24B |
| 2025Q1 | $11.67B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.84B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.37B |
| 2025Q4 | $11.27B |
| 2026Q1 | $12.25B |
| 2026Q2 | $10.60B |
| 2026Q3 | $9.95B |
| 2026Q4E | $10.02B |
| 2027Q1E | $9.75B |
| 2027Q2E | $9.19B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.92B |
| 2027Q4E | $9.26B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.70B |
| 2028Q2E | $9.28B |
| 2028Q3E | $9.10B |
| 2028Q4E | $9.46B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.90B |
| 2029Q2E | $9.55B |
| 2029Q3E | $9.42B |
| 2029Q4E | $9.81B |
| 2030Q1E | $10.27B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.98B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.92B |
What drives each segment
QCT Handsets
Growth pathSnapdragon platforms, stand-alone modems and the RF front end, transceiver and connectivity content that ships with them into smartphone OEMs. The largest single line and the one in structural decline: Apple is insourcing its modem, and the December flagship build is simultaneously the seasonal peak and the quarter management says Apple halves.
Latest: $2.33B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $5.25B |
| 2023Q4 | $5.46B |
| 2024Q1 | $6.69B |
| 2024Q2 | $6.18B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.90B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.10B |
| 2025Q1 | $7.57B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.93B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.33B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.82B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.02B |
| 2026Q3 | $5.09B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.99B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.03B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.55B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.20B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.31B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.52B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.15B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.86B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.97B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.16B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.84B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.58B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.68B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.86B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.56B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.33B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The December quarter is modelled as two opposing forces, and both are in the spec. The seasonality array lifts the December quarter 8.3% above the year's mean, and a separate -22% level step lands in that same quarter for the Apple decline Palkhiwala guided: 'we are forecasting approximately 50% decline from September to December quarter'. The step is the larger of the two, so the printed December line falls rather than recovers. Encoding the Apple cut as a growth rate instead would have let the seasonal factor manufacture a December uptick.
- The step is worth about $1.2B: the December quarter prints $4,278M where an unstepped path would have printed $5,485M, inside the $1.0-1.5B the research bounds from the derived ~$8.0B of fiscal 2026 Apple product revenue and the guided 50% September-to-December decline. That $8.0B is the single most consequential inference on this page: it is backed out of Palkhiwala's bridge - 'We expect this growth from non-handset revenues in fiscal '27 to replace total Apple product revenues in '26' - against a derived $13.35B non-handset base, and it is a floor, because the 60% growth it comes from is itself stated as a floor.
- Seasonality is carried and is the tightest in the dataset: fiscal 2024 factors 1.076/0.994/0.949/0.981 and fiscal 2025 factors 1.090/0.997/0.911/1.002 agree to 0.014 on the December peak and 0.003 in March. Fiscal 2023 is excluded as a distorted window (the Apple/OEM inventory correction and the RFFE re-segmentation recast), and fiscal 2026 cannot be a window at all - its 7,824 to 6,024 to 5,086 collapse is a demand and share shock, not a shape. Mechanism is disclosed in the 10-Q: revenues fluctuate 'in advance of and during device launches incorporating our products'.
- This line is NOT split into Apple and non-Apple, and it never should be from this disclosure. The fiscal 2025 10-K names Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi as the customers at 10% or more of revenue and separately reports three unnamed customers at 21%, 20% and 13%, but it never maps a name to a letter. Any Apple revenue line on this page would be manufactured.
- No unit driver exists. Qualcomm publishes no chipset units and no ASP anywhere in the release, 10-Q or 10-K, and discontinued Total Reported Device Sales years ago; the 10-Q gives only dollar-denominated price-versus-volume bridges. A growth rate off a disclosed revenue base is the only honest kind here.
QCT Automotive
Growth pathSnapdragon Digital Chassis content - digital cockpit, telematics and Snapdragon Ride ADAS - recognised as vehicles launch. A secular content-per-vehicle ramp converting a disclosed design-win pipeline rather than a cyclical line, and the only vertical here that has grown every single quarter for three years.
Latest: $2.14B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $434M |
| 2023Q4 | $535M |
| 2024Q1 | $598M |
| 2024Q2 | $603M |
| 2024Q3 | $811M |
| 2024Q4 | $899M |
| 2025Q1 | $961M |
| 2025Q2 | $959M |
| 2025Q3 | $984M |
| 2025Q4 | $1.05B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.33B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.59B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.66B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.72B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.78B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.83B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.87B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.91B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.94B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.97B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.00B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.02B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.05B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.07B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.09B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.10B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.12B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.14B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality tested and NOT carried, on the brief's own evidence. Window-to-window spread is 0.153/0.141/0.187/0.171 index points, larger than the deviation from 1.0 at every position, and the December factor swings from 0.974 in fiscal 2023 to 0.822 in fiscal 2024. The apparent September strength is within-year trend leakage from a line that rises monotonically inside every fiscal year, not a season.
- The first sequential step of 6.1% is calibrated to Palkhiwala's guidance, not to consensus: 'QCT Automotive, we expect another record quarter with approximately 60% year-over-year revenue growth', which off the $1,053M of fiscal 2025 Q4 is about $1,685M. Amon separately guided 'annualized sales of approximately $7 billion exiting fiscal '26', which the same quarter satisfies.
- The decay is set so this line decelerates hard rather than extrapolating the 61% just delivered. Management's own $10 billion by fiscal 2029 against a $7 billion annualised exit rate is roughly 13% compound annual growth - the target itself is a deceleration, and the base case here lands below it. The $65 billion design-win pipeline disclosed at the June 2026 Investor Day is an estimate of future programme size, not convertible backlog, so it is not used as a driver.
- No unit driver is available: the 10-Q attributes the $604M year-over-year increase to '$381 million increase in revenues per unit driven by favorable mix and higher average selling prices and $223 million in higher shipments' - dollars, never vehicle counts. Growth off the disclosed revenue base is the only sourceable kind.
QCT IoT
Growth pathPersonal AI and compute devices including Snapdragon X PC platforms and XR, plus industrial, networking and robotics silicon under the Dragonwing brand. A recovery-plus-mix line rather than a cyclical one, and the least-evidenced leg of the $40 billion non-handset target.
Latest: $2.25B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.49B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.38B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.14B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.24B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.36B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.55B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.58B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.68B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.81B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.69B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.73B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.83B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.85B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.86B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.89B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.91B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.93B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.96B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.98B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.01B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.04B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.07B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.10B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.13B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.16B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.19B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.22B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.25B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality tested and NOT carried. The two positions with any apparent signal are the two with the largest spread - December 0.293 and September 0.310 - and fiscal 2023 inverts the sign of both, with the December factor running 1.133, 0.839 and 0.936 across the three windows. Fiscal 2024, 2025 and 2026 all rise through the fiscal year, but that is inseparable from the secular recovery off the fiscal 2023 inventory drawdown. Two upward-trending windows cannot separate season from trend.
- The 2.4% first step continues the sequential pace of the last three quarters (1,688 to 1,726 to 1,830) rather than reaching for the target. Management's 'More than $14 billion by fiscal 2029' against roughly a $7.0 billion fiscal 2026 needs about 19% compound annual growth from a line that just delivered 9% year over year; this base case deliberately lands well short of it and the bull case is where the target lives.
- The one disclosed forward datum here is a pipeline, not revenue: Amon on the fiscal 2026 Q3 call said the 'industrial design win pipeline exceeds $7 billion with over $3.5 billion in design wins secured this fiscal year'. Design wins are neither dated nor contracted revenue, so they inform the terminal rate rather than driving it.
- No unit or attach-rate disclosure exists for IoT; the 10-Q attributes growth only to 'an increase in revenues per unit primarily driven by favorable mix'. A growth rate off the disclosed revenue base is the only honest driver kind.
QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing)
Growth pathPer-device royalties on licensees' 3G/4G/5G device sales, recognised roughly a quarter in arrears. A high-margin annuity - 69% segment EBT margin on an almost costless base - that inherits the handset build cycle with a lag and is capped by per-device royalty caps.
Latest: $1.17B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.23B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.26B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.46B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.32B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.27B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.52B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.53B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.32B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.32B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.41B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.59B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.38B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.28B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.43B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.23B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.21B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.28B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.38B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.17B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.28B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.38B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.17B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality is carried, with the mechanism disclosed rather than inferred: royalties are recognised when licensees' sales occur, a quarter in arrears, so the December factor is above 1.04 in all three complete windows (1.149, 1.048, 1.100) and again in the fiscal 2026 partial. March and June are the tightest positions in the whole dataset, at 0.027 and 0.031 spread.
- The September factor is the noisy element and the model does not lean on it: its window spread is 0.141, across 0.951, 1.092 and 1.010. That matters here, because the basis quarter is June and the first projected quarter is September, so the guided quarter is the one the weakest factor touches. The -3.0% deseasonalised first step prints $1,358M against guidance of '$1.2 billion to $1.4 billion' - inside the range and above its midpoint, which is a choice the noisy factor forces and which is stated rather than buried.
- QTL is EXCLUDED from Qualcomm's 'non-handset' definition, and the arithmetic settles it: reading non-handset as Automotive + IoT + nonreportable gives a fiscal 2025 base of $10,766M, which at the guided 24% fiscal 2026 growth implies a fourth quarter of $3,738M - consistent with the guided QCT range. Reading it as including QTL would force an implied fourth-quarter IoT line of about $3,242M, or +79% year over year against the 9% just delivered.
- Neither licensee units nor an implied royalty rate can be sourced: Qualcomm discontinued Total Reported Device Sales and estimated device shipment disclosure years ago. That rules out a unit driver and leaves a growth rate on disclosed revenue. Palkhiwala did note one live mechanism - 'to the extent that prices go up below the cap, there is some benefit that accrues to QTL' - which supports a terminal rate slightly above zero rather than below it.
Data Center and other nonreportable segments
Growth pathThe Alphawave-anchored data-centre push plus Qualcomm Government Technologies, reported together as one nonreportable line. Management's largest forward claim rests entirely here: $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and more than $15 billion in fiscal 2029, from a line that was $165M last quarter.
Latest: $2.03B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $47M |
| 2023Q4 | -$5M |
| 2024Q1 | $52M |
| 2024Q2 | $45M |
| 2024Q3 | $51M |
| 2024Q4 | $45M |
| 2025Q1 | $50M |
| 2025Q2 | $48M |
| 2025Q3 | $54M |
| 2025Q4 | $40M |
| 2026Q1 | $47M |
| 2026Q2 | $141M |
| 2026Q3 | $165M |
| 2026Q4E | $170M |
| 2027Q1E | $713M |
| 2027Q2E | $755M |
| 2027Q3E | $805M |
| 2027Q4E | $863M |
| 2028Q1E | $928M |
| 2028Q2E | $1000M |
| 2028Q3E | $1.08B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.17B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.26B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.36B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.60B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.73B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.87B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.03B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- BOUNDARY, and it is important. Qualcomm does not disclose Data Center revenue as a separate line anywhere. It discloses the combined nonreportable segment revenue - $165M for the quarter, $353M for the nine months - which also contains QGOV, and separately a Data Center year-over-year increment of '$88 million in higher equipment and services revenues from our Data Center segment, primarily driven by our acquisition of Alphawave'. The $5B and $15B targets are management's for the Data Center portion only; this vertical models the combined line and does not split QGOV out, because that split is not published.
- The +300% step in the December quarter is the launch, not a growth rate. Palkhiwala: 'we expect to start seeing revenue from both of them starting in the December quarter'; Amon: 'Our 2 near-term custom silicon wins will be revenue generating in the December quarter, and we have begun wafer production.' A dated step-in of contracted programmes is a level change, and a smooth exponential off a $165M base cannot represent it - which is why the step is a separate field here.
- The base case deliberately lands below management on both dated targets: $3,772M of fiscal 2027 revenue against the $5 billion target, and $10,352M of fiscal 2029 against the more-than-$15 billion one - and both of those model figures still include QGOV, which the targets do not. The bull case is where the targets themselves live. The terminal rate of 14% a quarter is not a free assumption: management's own $5 billion to $15 billion over two fiscal years is about 73% compound annual growth, or 14.6% a quarter, so this line holds management's shape and haircuts its level rather than inventing a different curve.
- Seasonality is not carried and no factors could honestly be fitted. This is a $40-165M residual that was step-changed by the Alphawave close on 18 December 2025 and is about to be step-changed again by the custom-silicon launch. Its variation is acquisition and programme timing; any four factors fitted to it would be noise.
- Economics start deeply negative because they are: the 10-Q reports nonreportable segment EBT of -$214M on $165M of revenue, a -129.7% margin. The 30%-a-quarter glide takes that to roughly break-even during fiscal 2028 and to the low teens by fiscal 2029, which is an assumption about operating leverage at scale rather than a disclosure. What is disclosed is only the direction: management guides that this ramp is 'a drag of 1.5% to 2% on the weighted average gross margin' as it grows.
- The prior-year figures here are derived, not reported, and are marked estimated: they are residuals from the release tables, validated against the 10-Q rather than assumed. The three fiscal 2026 quarterly residuals (47 + 141 + 165) sum to the disclosed nine-month $353M, and the fiscal 2025 equivalents sum to their disclosed $152M once the $143M unallocated licensing settlement is removed.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The disclosed reason handsets fall
- Nov 5, 2025 we expect that Apple will increasingly use its own modem products, rather than our products, in its future devices, which will have a significant negative impact on our QCT revenues, results of operations and cash flows
- Jul 29, 2026 our share for upcoming iPhone launch is expected to be materially lower than our prior estimate of 20%
- Jul 29, 2026 lower chipset shipments to certain major OEMs (primarily driven by customers adjusting build plans to reduce their inventory levels as a result of the negative effects of recent memory supply constraints and related price increases)
- Jul 29, 2026 a drag of 1.5% to 2% on the weighted average gross margin
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The Investor Day targets this case reaches
- Jun 24, 2026 total non-handset revenues growing to $40 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 Data Center revenues: More than $15 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 Automotive revenues: $10 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 IoT revenues: More than $14 billion by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 Handsets: To represent approximately one-third of QCT revenues by fiscal 2029
- Jun 24, 2026 more than $18 non-GAAP EPS in fiscal 2029
Amon case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Amon column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The claim under test
- Jul 29, 2026 total non-handset revenues growing to $40 billion by fiscal 2029 - nearly double the target we shared in November 2024
- Jul 29, 2026 we expect year-over-year growth in non-handset revenues, including Data Center, to accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to greater than 60% in fiscal 2027
- Aug 7, 2026 We expect this growth from non-handset revenues in fiscal '27 to replace total Apple product revenues in '26.
- Aug 7, 2026 data center revenue growth to $5 billion in fiscal '27 and $15 billion in fiscal '29
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 16 quarters | $15.42B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $39.97B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $7.85B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 3.0x |
| Terminal value | $119.92B |
| Discounted at 10.5% a year, terminal value becomes | $80.43B |
| Enterprise value | $95.86B |
| Net cash | -$6.97B |
| Equity value | $88.89B |
| Shares | 1.07B |
| Fair value per share | $83.15 |
| Against the current price of $164.78 | -50% |
The exit multiple is the assumption doing nearly all of the work, and it is anchored to Qualcomm's own current multiple rather than to an unverified peer set: 4.0x terminal revenue against the 4.13x EV/TTM revenue the shares trade at today. On this base case the last four projected quarters carry $58.4B of revenue and $11.8B of EBITDA, so 4.0x revenue is 19.8x that terminal EBITDA. The result is $168.59 a share against the $163.72 close of 26 August 2026 that this model carries - a 3.0% gap, which is another way of saying the market is roughly paying for this path already. The sensitivity is almost entirely in the multiple: 2.5x gives $110, 3.0x gives $130, 4.0x gives $169, 5.0x gives $207, and it takes only 3.87x to reach today's price. The discount rate barely matters by comparison - 7% gives $181 and 12% gives $152 - because 88.5% of the enterprise value is terminal, which is what a sixteen-quarter horizon on a business whose largest line is shrinking looks like. What this valuation does NOT charge: nothing for QSI, whose +$768M of EBT in the basis quarter is excluded as non-operating investment gains, and no cash interest on the $15.3B of debt - the $6,966M of net debt is netted off the equity instead. What it DOES charge, unusually, is share-based compensation: the vertical margins here are Qualcomm's own segment EBT margins, so the model's free cash flow is struck after the roughly $860M a quarter of stock compensation that reported free cash flow adds back. That is why this model's free cash flow margin is about 15% in the first projected quarter against the 23.6% the trailing twelve months of reported free cash flow shows, and the two numbers are not comparable.
Read the other way round: at $164.78 the market is paying 6.3x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | QCT Handsets | QCT Automotive | QCT IoT | QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) | Data Center and other nonreportable segments | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q4E | $4.99B | $1.66B | $1.85B | $1.35B | $170M | $10.02B | -11% | $1.94B | $495M | $1.26B | +2 | $1.23B |
| 2027 Q1E | $4.03B | $1.72B | $1.86B | $1.43B | $713M | $9.75B | -20% | $1.55B | $474M | $941M | -11 | $895M |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.55B | $1.78B | $1.89B | $1.23B | $755M | $9.19B | -13% | $1.51B | $449M | $930M | -3 | $863M |
| 2027 Q3E | $3.20B | $1.83B | $1.91B | $1.18B | $805M | $8.92B | -10% | $1.55B | $433M | $977M | +1 | $884M |
| 2027 Q4E | $3.31B | $1.87B | $1.93B | $1.29B | $863M | $9.26B | -8% | $1.72B | $443M | $1.12B | +5 | $987M |
| 2028 Q1E | $3.52B | $1.91B | $1.96B | $1.39B | $928M | $9.70B | -1% | $1.89B | $459M | $1.25B | +12 | $1.07B |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.15B | $1.94B | $1.98B | $1.21B | $1000M | $9.28B | +1% | $1.78B | $443M | $1.17B | +14 | $980M |
| 2028 Q3E | $2.86B | $1.97B | $2.01B | $1.17B | $1.08B | $9.10B | +2% | $1.76B | $433M | $1.16B | +15 | $951M |
| 2028 Q4E | $2.97B | $2.00B | $2.04B | $1.28B | $1.17B | $9.46B | +2% | $1.88B | $446M | $1.26B | +15 | $1.01B |
| 2029 Q1E | $3.16B | $2.02B | $2.07B | $1.38B | $1.26B | $9.90B | +2% | $2.01B | $463M | $1.35B | +16 | $1.06B |
| 2029 Q2E | $2.84B | $2.05B | $2.10B | $1.20B | $1.36B | $9.55B | +3% | $1.88B | $452M | $1.25B | +16 | $950M |
| 2029 Q3E | $2.58B | $2.07B | $2.13B | $1.17B | $1.48B | $9.42B | +4% | $1.85B | $447M | $1.23B | +17 | $908M |
| 2029 Q4E | $2.68B | $2.09B | $2.16B | $1.28B | $1.60B | $9.81B | +4% | $1.95B | $461M | $1.31B | +17 | $945M |
| 2030 Q1E | $2.86B | $2.10B | $2.19B | $1.38B | $1.73B | $10.27B | +4% | $2.07B | $480M | $1.39B | +17 | $980M |
| 2030 Q2E | $2.56B | $2.12B | $2.22B | $1.20B | $1.87B | $9.98B | +5% | $1.93B | $474M | $1.28B | +17 | $878M |
| 2030 Q3E | $2.33B | $2.14B | $2.25B | $1.17B | $2.03B | $9.92B | +5% | $1.90B | $472M | $1.25B | +18 | $836M |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | verticals, seasonality, corporate, valuation, scenarios | $168.59 | First cut, built on the fiscal 2026 Q3 release of 29 July 2026 and the verified research brief of 27 August 2026. Five verticals, all of them lines Qualcomm publishes: Handsets, Automotive and IoT from the Exhibit 99.1 QCT revenue-streams table, QTL from the segment table, and the nonreportable line (Data Center plus QGOV) as a residual validated against the 10-Q's nine-month totals. Seasonality was derived per vertical from complete fiscal-year windows and carried on exactly two of them - Handsets and QTL, where the mechanism is disclosed and the windows agree - and refused on Automotive, IoT and the data-centre line, where window-to-window spread exceeds the signal. Two disclosed, dated level steps land in the December 2026 quarter rather than being smeared into a growth rate: -22% on Handsets for the guided Apple decline, and +300% on the nonreportable line for the two custom-silicon programmes management says begin generating revenue that quarter. |