QCOM · Forward model · QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) · Bear case
What has to happen in QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing)
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QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing)
Basis quarter$1.28B
Final quarter$1.17B
Implied CAGR−2%
Final revenue mix12%
Per-device royalties on licensees' 3G/4G/5G device sales, recognised roughly a quarter in arrears. A high-margin annuity - 69% segment EBT margin on an almost costless base - that inherits the handset build cycle with a lag and is capped by per-device royalty caps.
Last four quarters
2025 Q4
$1.41B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.59B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.38B
Reported
2026 Q3
$1.28B
Reported
Per-device royalties under 3G/4G/5G licence agreementsFixed-fee and cross-licence arrangements
Sequential growth
−3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +0.5%
-3.0% deseasonalised. Prints $1,358M for September, inside the guided $1.2-1.4B range and above its midpoint.
QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing)
Latest: $1.17B (2030Q3E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $1.23B |
| 2023Q4 | $1.26B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.46B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.32B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.27B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.52B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.53B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.32B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.32B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.41B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.59B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.38B |
| 2026Q3 | $1.28B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.35B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.43B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.23B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.18B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.29B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.39B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.21B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.17B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.28B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.38B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.17B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.28B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.38B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.20B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.17B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality is carried, with the mechanism disclosed rather than inferred: royalties are recognised when licensees' sales occur, a quarter in arrears, so the December factor is above 1.04 in all three complete windows (1.149, 1.048, 1.100) and again in the fiscal 2026 partial. March and June are the tightest positions in the whole dataset, at 0.027 and 0.031 spread.
- The September factor is the noisy element and the model does not lean on it: its window spread is 0.141, across 0.951, 1.092 and 1.010. That matters here, because the basis quarter is June and the first projected quarter is September, so the guided quarter is the one the weakest factor touches. The -3.0% deseasonalised first step prints $1,358M against guidance of '$1.2 billion to $1.4 billion' - inside the range and above its midpoint, which is a choice the noisy factor forces and which is stated rather than buried.
- QTL is EXCLUDED from Qualcomm's 'non-handset' definition, and the arithmetic settles it: reading non-handset as Automotive + IoT + nonreportable gives a fiscal 2025 base of $10,766M, which at the guided 24% fiscal 2026 growth implies a fourth quarter of $3,738M - consistent with the guided QCT range. Reading it as including QTL would force an implied fourth-quarter IoT line of about $3,242M, or +79% year over year against the 9% just delivered.
- Neither licensee units nor an implied royalty rate can be sourced: Qualcomm discontinued Total Reported Device Sales and estimated device shipment disclosure years ago. That rules out a unit driver and leaves a growth rate on disclosed revenue. Palkhiwala did note one live mechanism - 'to the extent that prices go up below the cap, there is some benefit that accrues to QTL' - which supports a terminal rate slightly above zero rather than below it.