NFLX · Forward model · EMEA
What has to happen in EMEA
Model as of
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EMEA
Basis quarter$4.03B
Final quarter$5.68B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix32%
Europe, Middle East and Africa. $4,034M in the basis quarter, the first time EMEA has passed $4.0B in a quarter, +14% year over year but only +11% F/X neutral - about three points of the printed growth is currency. Sequentially the softest region in Q2 at +0.9%, with local broadcaster partnerships such as the TF1 tie-up in France as the new distribution lever. Driver is sequential growth on the disclosed regional line.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$3.70B
Reported
2025 Q4
$3.87B
Reported
2026 Q1
$4.00B
Reported
2026 Q2
$4.03B
Reported
Memberships across European, Middle Eastern and African marketsAdvertising in the ads-enabled EMEA marketsLocal broadcaster partnerships such as TF1 in France
Sequential growth
+2.4%/qtr
decaying toward +1.2%
Q2 was a soft +0.9% sequential; 2.4% restores the 2025 cadence without assuming the F/X tailwind repeats.
EMEA
Latest: $5.68B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $3.01B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.13B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.29B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.40B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.54B |
| 2025Q3 | $3.70B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.87B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.00B |
| 2026Q2 | $4.03B |
| 2026Q3E | $4.13B |
| 2026Q4E | $4.22B |
| 2027Q1E | $4.32B |
| 2027Q2E | $4.41B |
| 2027Q3E | $4.49B |
| 2027Q4E | $4.58B |
| 2028Q1E | $4.66B |
| 2028Q2E | $4.75B |
| 2028Q3E | $4.83B |
| 2028Q4E | $4.91B |
| 2029Q1E | $4.99B |
| 2029Q2E | $5.07B |
| 2029Q3E | $5.14B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.22B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.30B |
| 2030Q2E | $5.38B |
| 2030Q3E | $5.45B |
| 2030Q4E | $5.53B |
| 2031Q1E | $5.60B |
| 2031Q2E | $5.68B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capex intensity means purchases of property and equipment plus cash content spend in EXCESS of content amortisation. Content amortisation stays inside operating expense, exactly as Netflix reports it, and is not subtracted a second time here.
- EBITDA margin is the consolidated pre-G&A figure applied to the region. Netflix is a single operating segment and publishes no regional cost or operating income, so a differentiated EMEA margin would be manufactured.
- Reported +14% against +11% F/X neutral means roughly three points of this line's growth is currency. The opening sequential rate is set below the reported trend precisely because that gap is not a durable driver.
- Advertising in the ads-enabled EMEA markets is inside this number. It is guided only as a company-wide ~$3B for 2026 and never by region, so it cannot honestly be split out.