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NFLX · Forward model · EMEA · Bull case

What has to happen in EMEA

Model as of

This page changes EMEA inside the complete NFLX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NFLX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $87.23 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $6.36B 32% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $30.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The story is margin, not acceleration. Q3 is guided to a 33.2% operating margin against 28.2% a year earlier - roughly 500bp of expansion - and the full year to 31.5% against 29.5%, which management says implies 20%+ operating income growth. Content amortisation is guided to rise about 10%, well below revenue, and Sarandos frames that as deliberate discipline rather than underinvestment. What this case does NOT reach is a return to mid-teens revenue growth, and it does not assume the record buyback re-rates the multiple by itself.

EMEA

Basis quarter$4.03B
Final quarter$6.36B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix32%

Europe, Middle East and Africa. $4,034M in the basis quarter, the first time EMEA has passed $4.0B in a quarter, +14% year over year but only +11% F/X neutral - about three points of the printed growth is currency. Sequentially the softest region in Q2 at +0.9%, with local broadcaster partnerships such as the TF1 tie-up in France as the new distribution lever. Driver is sequential growth on the disclosed regional line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.70B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.87B Reported
2026 Q1 $4.00B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.03B Reported
Memberships across European, Middle Eastern and African marketsAdvertising in the ads-enabled EMEA marketsLocal broadcaster partnerships such as TF1 in France
Sequential growth +2.4%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% Q2 was a soft +0.9% sequential; 2.4% restores the 2025 cadence without assuming the F/X tailwind repeats.
EMEA

Latest: $6.36B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $3.01B
2024Q3 $3.13B
2024Q4 $3.29B
2025Q1 $3.40B
2025Q2 $3.54B
2025Q3 $3.70B
2025Q4 $3.87B
2026Q1 $4.00B
2026Q2 $4.03B
2026Q3E $4.15B
2026Q4E $4.26B
2027Q1E $4.37B
2027Q2E $4.48B
2027Q3E $4.60B
2027Q4E $4.71B
2028Q1E $4.82B
2028Q2E $4.93B
2028Q3E $5.05B
2028Q4E $5.16B
2029Q1E $5.28B
2029Q2E $5.39B
2029Q3E $5.51B
2029Q4E $5.63B
2030Q1E $5.74B
2030Q2E $5.86B
2030Q3E $5.99B
2030Q4E $6.11B
2031Q1E $6.23B
2031Q2E $6.36B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Capex intensity means purchases of property and equipment plus cash content spend in EXCESS of content amortisation. Content amortisation stays inside operating expense, exactly as Netflix reports it, and is not subtracted a second time here.
  • EBITDA margin is the consolidated pre-G&A figure applied to the region. Netflix is a single operating segment and publishes no regional cost or operating income, so a differentiated EMEA margin would be manufactured.
  • Reported +14% against +11% F/X neutral means roughly three points of this line's growth is currency. The opening sequential rate is set below the reported trend precisely because that gap is not a durable driver.
  • Advertising in the ads-enabled EMEA markets is inside this number. It is guided only as a company-wide ~$3B for 2026 and never by region, so it cannot honestly be split out.
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