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NFLX · Forward model · EMEA · Bear case

What has to happen in EMEA

Model as of

This page changes EMEA inside the complete NFLX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NFLX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $44.55 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.82B 32% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $22.39B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Growth decelerates faster than price can offset. Reported growth has fallen from +17.6% in Q4 2025 to +16.2% in Q1 2026 to +13.4% in Q2, with Q3 guided to +11.7%, and UCAN - 43% of revenue - is already at +10%. This case assumes the price lever gets harder each cycle and that the FY2026 exit rate is the ceiling rather than a trough, with margin expansion stalling short of the guided glide. What it does NOT assume is a revenue decline, a margin reversal, or falling engagement: view hours grew about 2% in H1 2026 against 1.5% in 2025.

EMEA

Basis quarter$4.03B
Final quarter$4.82B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix32%

Europe, Middle East and Africa. $4,034M in the basis quarter, the first time EMEA has passed $4.0B in a quarter, +14% year over year but only +11% F/X neutral - about three points of the printed growth is currency. Sequentially the softest region in Q2 at +0.9%, with local broadcaster partnerships such as the TF1 tie-up in France as the new distribution lever. Driver is sequential growth on the disclosed regional line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.70B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.87B Reported
2026 Q1 $4.00B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.03B Reported
Memberships across European, Middle Eastern and African marketsAdvertising in the ads-enabled EMEA marketsLocal broadcaster partnerships such as TF1 in France
Sequential growth +2.4%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% Q2 was a soft +0.9% sequential; 2.4% restores the 2025 cadence without assuming the F/X tailwind repeats.
EMEA

Latest: $4.82B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $3.01B
2024Q3 $3.13B
2024Q4 $3.29B
2025Q1 $3.40B
2025Q2 $3.54B
2025Q3 $3.70B
2025Q4 $3.87B
2026Q1 $4.00B
2026Q2 $4.03B
2026Q3E $4.11B
2026Q4E $4.17B
2027Q1E $4.23B
2027Q2E $4.29B
2027Q3E $4.35B
2027Q4E $4.39B
2028Q1E $4.44B
2028Q2E $4.48B
2028Q3E $4.52B
2028Q4E $4.56B
2029Q1E $4.59B
2029Q2E $4.62B
2029Q3E $4.65B
2029Q4E $4.68B
2030Q1E $4.71B
2030Q2E $4.73B
2030Q3E $4.76B
2030Q4E $4.78B
2031Q1E $4.80B
2031Q2E $4.82B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Capex intensity means purchases of property and equipment plus cash content spend in EXCESS of content amortisation. Content amortisation stays inside operating expense, exactly as Netflix reports it, and is not subtracted a second time here.
  • EBITDA margin is the consolidated pre-G&A figure applied to the region. Netflix is a single operating segment and publishes no regional cost or operating income, so a differentiated EMEA margin would be manufactured.
  • Reported +14% against +11% F/X neutral means roughly three points of this line's growth is currency. The opening sequential rate is set below the reported trend precisely because that gap is not a durable driver.
  • Advertising in the ads-enabled EMEA markets is inside this number. It is guided only as a company-wide ~$3B for 2026 and never by region, so it cannot honestly be split out.
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