← NFLX forward model

NFLX · Forward model · EMEA · Ads flywheel case

What has to happen in EMEA

Model as of

This page changes EMEA inside the complete NFLX model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

NFLX forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $78.12 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $6.17B 32% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $28.76B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Advertising roughly doubles to approximately $3B in 2026 and keeps closing the gap between ad-tier and standard-tier revenue per member, a gap Greg Peters calls near-term underrealized revenue growth. This case pays for that as the four regional lines holding a faster sequential rate for longer, with a small extra tilt to UCAN where the US upfront sits. It explicitly does NOT create an advertising vertical, invent an ads ARM series, or assume a 2027 ads number: Netflix has published neither an ads revenue line nor a 2027 target, and it does not reach the bull case's margin.

EMEA

Basis quarter$4.03B
Final quarter$6.17B
Implied CAGR+9%
Final revenue mix32%

Europe, Middle East and Africa. $4,034M in the basis quarter, the first time EMEA has passed $4.0B in a quarter, +14% year over year but only +11% F/X neutral - about three points of the printed growth is currency. Sequentially the softest region in Q2 at +0.9%, with local broadcaster partnerships such as the TF1 tie-up in France as the new distribution lever. Driver is sequential growth on the disclosed regional line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $3.70B Reported
2025 Q4 $3.87B Reported
2026 Q1 $4.00B Reported
2026 Q2 $4.03B Reported
Memberships across European, Middle Eastern and African marketsAdvertising in the ads-enabled EMEA marketsLocal broadcaster partnerships such as TF1 in France
Sequential growth +2.4%/qtr decaying toward +1.2% Q2 was a soft +0.9% sequential; 2.4% restores the 2025 cadence without assuming the F/X tailwind repeats.
EMEA

Latest: $6.17B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q2 $3.01B
2024Q3 $3.13B
2024Q4 $3.29B
2025Q1 $3.40B
2025Q2 $3.54B
2025Q3 $3.70B
2025Q4 $3.87B
2026Q1 $4.00B
2026Q2 $4.03B
2026Q3E $4.14B
2026Q4E $4.25B
2027Q1E $4.36B
2027Q2E $4.46B
2027Q3E $4.57B
2027Q4E $4.67B
2028Q1E $4.78B
2028Q2E $4.88B
2028Q3E $4.99B
2028Q4E $5.09B
2029Q1E $5.20B
2029Q2E $5.30B
2029Q3E $5.41B
2029Q4E $5.51B
2030Q1E $5.62B
2030Q2E $5.73B
2030Q3E $5.84B
2030Q4E $5.94B
2031Q1E $6.05B
2031Q2E $6.17B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Capex intensity means purchases of property and equipment plus cash content spend in EXCESS of content amortisation. Content amortisation stays inside operating expense, exactly as Netflix reports it, and is not subtracted a second time here.
  • EBITDA margin is the consolidated pre-G&A figure applied to the region. Netflix is a single operating segment and publishes no regional cost or operating income, so a differentiated EMEA margin would be manufactured.
  • Reported +14% against +11% F/X neutral means roughly three points of this line's growth is currency. The opening sequential rate is set below the reported trend precisely because that gap is not a durable driver.
  • Advertising in the ads-enabled EMEA markets is inside this number. It is guided only as a company-wide ~$3B for 2026 and never by region, so it cannot honestly be split out.
NFLX model map

Explore another vertical