NFLX · Forward model · UCAN · Bear case
What has to happen in UCAN
Model as of
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UCAN
United States and Canada. $5,432M in the basis quarter, 43% of company revenue, +10% year over year - the slowest print in the nine-quarter history. The most penetrated region and the one where price, not membership count, is now the lever: the letter says Q2 carries only a partial-quarter effect from the recent US price change, so H2 still has pricing to collect. With no quarterly membership or ARM series after 2024 Q4, the driver is sequential growth on the disclosed regional line.
Latest: $6.18B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $4.30B |
| 2024Q3 | $4.32B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.52B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.62B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.93B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.07B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.34B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.25B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.43B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.51B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.59B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.65B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.72B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.77B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.82B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.87B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.91B |
| 2028Q3E | $5.95B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.98B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.01B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.04B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.06B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.09B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.11B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.13B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.14B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.16B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.17B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.18B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capex intensity means purchases of property and equipment plus cash content spend in EXCESS of content amortisation. Content amortisation stays inside operating expense, exactly as Netflix reports it; subtracting it again as capex would double count the largest cost in the business.
- EBITDA margin is pre-corporate-overhead. 38.2% here less 4.0% corporate overhead is the consolidated 34.2%, which is the reported 33.4% operating margin plus property D&A of $100.5M. Netflix discloses no operating profit by region, so this is the company figure applied to the region.
- Advertising is guided to roughly $3B for 2026 and is already inside this number. It is not broken out here because Netflix discloses no ads revenue line, no regional ads split and no quarterly ads series.
- Terminal margin 41% is the company terminal, carried by the most mature region. Management moved full-year margin from 29.5% to a guided 31.5%; the 0.08 glide keeps roughly that 200bp-a-year pace and then slows.