NFLX · Forward model · APAC · Ads flywheel case
What has to happen in APAC
Model as of
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APAC
Asia-Pacific. $1,510M in the basis quarter, +16% year over year reported and +18% F/X neutral - the only region where the currency effect runs against the print. Sequentially flat in Q2 at +0.1% after four strong quarters, with Japanese and Korean title strength and a low-cost first-month test in Japan the visible levers. The least penetrated of the four regions, so it carries the highest terminal rate. Driver is sequential growth on the disclosed regional line.
Latest: $2.56B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $1.05B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.13B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.21B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.26B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.30B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.37B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.42B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.51B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.51B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.56B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.62B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.67B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.72B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.77B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.82B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.87B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.92B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.98B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.03B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.08B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.13B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.18B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.23B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.29B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.34B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.39B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.45B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.50B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.56B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Capex intensity means purchases of property and equipment plus cash content spend in EXCESS of content amortisation. Content amortisation remains an operating expense here, as Netflix reports it, and is not double counted as capital spending.
- Terminal margin is two points under the company terminal on the grounds that this is the lowest-ARM region. No regional margin is disclosed, so the haircut is deliberately small and flagged as judgement.
- This is the only region where F/X-neutral growth (+18%) exceeds reported growth (+16%), the reverse of LATAM. A stronger dollar would flatter this line's underlying performance rather than the print.
- Netflix stopped publishing quarterly paid memberships and ARM after 2024 Q4 and cut the What We Watched engagement report to annual from 2027, so neither subscribers nor view hours can drive this line.