MDB · Forward model · MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other · Bear case
What has to happen in MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other
Model as of
This page changes MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other inside the complete MDB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other
The self-managed product: a commercial licence plus support for customers running MongoDB on their own infrastructure, together with a small amount of other subscription revenue. Licence revenue is recognised substantially upfront at contract start, so the line is lumpy - it fell 9.9% sequentially in the basis quarter after rising 23.0% in the one before - and its share of subscription revenue has fallen from about 28% in fiscal 2023 to 23.07% now as Atlas compounds faster. MongoDB discloses no licence count, no seat count and no renewal base for it, so only a base growth rate is defensible.
Latest: $150M (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q1 | $71M |
| 2021Q2 | $71M |
| 2021Q3 | $73M |
| 2021Q4 | $79M |
| 2022Q1 | $81M |
| 2022Q2 | $80M |
| 2022Q3 | $87M |
| 2022Q4 | $102M |
| 2023Q1 | $105M |
| 2023Q2 | $98M |
| 2023Q3 | $109M |
| 2023Q4 | $115M |
| 2024Q1 | $117M |
| 2024Q2 | $142M |
| 2024Q3 | $131M |
| 2024Q4 | $131M |
| 2025Q1 | $123M |
| 2025Q2 | $124M |
| 2025Q3 | $150M |
| 2025Q4 | $142M |
| 2026Q1 | $136M |
| 2026Q2 | $133M |
| 2026Q3 | $139M |
| 2026Q4 | $170M |
| 2027Q1 | $154M |
| 2027Q2E | $155M |
| 2027Q3E | $157M |
| 2027Q4E | $158M |
| 2028Q1E | $158M |
| 2028Q2E | $159M |
| 2028Q3E | $159M |
| 2028Q4E | $159M |
| 2029Q1E | $159M |
| 2029Q2E | $159M |
| 2029Q3E | $159M |
| 2029Q4E | $158M |
| 2030Q1E | $158M |
| 2030Q2E | $157M |
| 2030Q3E | $156M |
| 2030Q4E | $155M |
| 2031Q1E | $154M |
| 2031Q2E | $153M |
| 2031Q3E | $152M |
| 2031Q4E | $151M |
| 2032Q1E | $150M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the exact dollar 'MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other' line from the disaggregation table, NOT the release's supplemental 'MongoDB Enterprise Advanced: % of Subscription Revenue' of 21%. The two are different measures: the disaggregated line is 23.07% of subscription revenue because it also carries roughly $13.8 million of non-EA other subscription revenue, and deriving the vertical from the 21% would understate it by about that much.
- Tested for seasonality on the same centred four-quarter moving-average method as Atlas and left ASEASONAL. The apparent 5.4-point fourth-quarter lift is swamped by window-to-window spread of up to 17.6 points inside a single fiscal quarter, with individual fiscal Q2 observations running from 0.931 to 1.107. That is upfront licence recognition landing in different quarters year to year, not a season, and leaving the line flat is the finding rather than a gap.
- The 89.0% gross margin is ASSUMED. It is the other half of the Atlas/EA split that reproduces the disclosed 77.06% blended non-GAAP subscription margin; MongoDB never publishes a product-level cost of revenue for either line.