MDB · Forward model · MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other · Bull case
What has to happen in MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other
Model as of
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MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other
The self-managed product: a commercial licence plus support for customers running MongoDB on their own infrastructure, together with a small amount of other subscription revenue. Licence revenue is recognised substantially upfront at contract start, so the line is lumpy - it fell 9.9% sequentially in the basis quarter after rising 23.0% in the one before - and its share of subscription revenue has fallen from about 28% in fiscal 2023 to 23.07% now as Atlas compounds faster. MongoDB discloses no licence count, no seat count and no renewal base for it, so only a base growth rate is defensible.
Latest: $284M (2032Q1E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2021Q1 | $71M |
| 2021Q2 | $71M |
| 2021Q3 | $73M |
| 2021Q4 | $79M |
| 2022Q1 | $81M |
| 2022Q2 | $80M |
| 2022Q3 | $87M |
| 2022Q4 | $102M |
| 2023Q1 | $105M |
| 2023Q2 | $98M |
| 2023Q3 | $109M |
| 2023Q4 | $115M |
| 2024Q1 | $117M |
| 2024Q2 | $142M |
| 2024Q3 | $131M |
| 2024Q4 | $131M |
| 2025Q1 | $123M |
| 2025Q2 | $124M |
| 2025Q3 | $150M |
| 2025Q4 | $142M |
| 2026Q1 | $136M |
| 2026Q2 | $133M |
| 2026Q3 | $139M |
| 2026Q4 | $170M |
| 2027Q1 | $154M |
| 2027Q2E | $159M |
| 2027Q3E | $165M |
| 2027Q4E | $171M |
| 2028Q1E | $176M |
| 2028Q2E | $182M |
| 2028Q3E | $188M |
| 2028Q4E | $194M |
| 2029Q1E | $200M |
| 2029Q2E | $206M |
| 2029Q3E | $213M |
| 2029Q4E | $219M |
| 2030Q1E | $226M |
| 2030Q2E | $233M |
| 2030Q3E | $239M |
| 2030Q4E | $246M |
| 2031Q1E | $254M |
| 2031Q2E | $261M |
| 2031Q3E | $268M |
| 2031Q4E | $276M |
| 2032Q1E | $284M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the exact dollar 'MongoDB Enterprise Advanced and other' line from the disaggregation table, NOT the release's supplemental 'MongoDB Enterprise Advanced: % of Subscription Revenue' of 21%. The two are different measures: the disaggregated line is 23.07% of subscription revenue because it also carries roughly $13.8 million of non-EA other subscription revenue, and deriving the vertical from the 21% would understate it by about that much.
- Tested for seasonality on the same centred four-quarter moving-average method as Atlas and left ASEASONAL. The apparent 5.4-point fourth-quarter lift is swamped by window-to-window spread of up to 17.6 points inside a single fiscal quarter, with individual fiscal Q2 observations running from 0.931 to 1.107. That is upfront licence recognition landing in different quarters year to year, not a season, and leaving the line flat is the finding rather than a gap.
- The 89.0% gross margin is ASSUMED. It is the other half of the Atlas/EA split that reproduces the disclosed 77.06% blended non-GAAP subscription margin; MongoDB never publishes a product-level cost of revenue for either line.