← MDB forward model

MDB · Forward model · Services · Bear case

What has to happen in Services

Model as of

This page changes Services inside the complete MDB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

MDB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $164.88 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $23M 3% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$26M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Take MongoDB's own full-year guide literally. The $2.92-2.96 billion fiscal 2027 range, against $687.6 million already banked in Q1 and $729-734 million guided for Q2, leaves second-half revenue of $1,500.9-1,540.9 million against $1,323.4 million a year earlier - growth of 13.4% to 16.4% year over year, versus the 25.2% just printed. Reproducing that needs the Atlas deseasonalised trend to collapse toward 2% a quarter from the 7.30% the basis quarter delivered. Add the self-managed line, which fell 9.9% sequentially, and direct hyperscaler competition from a DynamoDB the company's own CTO used to run. The 1.5-point quarterly growth haircut compounds, so terminal-year revenue lands at $3.44 billion against $4.90 billion in base - about 30% smaller, and the exit multiple de-rates to 4.5x with the discount rate up to 11%.

Services

Basis quarter$21M
Final quarter$23M
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix3%

Professional services and training sold alongside the platform: 3.1% of revenue in the basis quarter and the one line MongoDB runs at a gross loss, at -5.0% on a non-GAAP basis and -23.5% on GAAP. It exists to get customers deployed rather than to earn, and MongoDB publishes no headcount, utilisation or day rate for it, so a base growth rate tied loosely to platform deployments is the only honest driver.

Last four quarters
2026 Q2 $19M Reported
2026 Q3 $19M Reported
2026 Q4 $22M Reported
2027 Q1 $21M Reported
Consulting and implementation services for platform deploymentsTraining and certification
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.5% a quarter is 14.8% annualised, below the 22.3% delivered; services trails subscription as deployments mature.
Services

Latest: $23M (2032Q1E)

Period Value
2021Q1 $5M
2021Q2 $6M
2021Q3 $7M
2021Q4 $7M
2022Q1 $7M
2022Q2 $7M
2022Q3 $9M
2022Q4 $8M
2023Q1 $11M
2023Q2 $12M
2023Q3 $13M
2023Q4 $13M
2024Q1 $14M
2024Q2 $14M
2024Q3 $15M
2024Q4 $13M
2025Q1 $14M
2025Q2 $14M
2025Q3 $17M
2025Q4 $17M
2026Q1 $18M
2026Q2 $19M
2026Q3 $19M
2026Q4 $22M
2027Q1 $21M
2027Q2E $22M
2027Q3E $22M
2027Q4E $23M
2028Q1E $23M
2028Q2E $23M
2028Q3E $23M
2028Q4E $23M
2029Q1E $23M
2029Q2E $23M
2029Q3E $23M
2029Q4E $23M
2030Q1E $23M
2030Q2E $23M
2030Q3E $23M
2030Q4E $23M
2031Q1E $23M
2031Q2E $23M
2031Q3E $23M
2031Q4E $23M
2032Q1E $23M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Services gross margin is one of the few product-level economics MongoDB actually discloses, because services revenue and services cost of revenue are separate income-statement lines: revenue of $21,478 thousand against non-GAAP services cost of revenue of $22,558 thousand (GAAP $26,534 less $3,976 of stock-based compensation) gives -5.03%.
  • Tested for seasonality and left ASEASONAL: a 6.6-point apparent signal against window-to-window spread of up to 15.5 points inside one fiscal quarter. On a line this small and this lumpy the shape is noise.
  • The line is projected to breakeven rather than to profit. MongoDB has never run services for margin and nothing in the filings suggests it intends to start; a loss-making line growing faster than the company average is a small drag on the blend.
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