KO · Forward model · Latin America
What has to happen in Latin America
Model as of
This page changes Latin America inside the complete KO model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Latin America
Basis quarter$1.84B
Final quarter$2.26B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix15%
Mexico, Brazil and the rest of Latin America, almost entirely concentrate: $1,839M of third-party revenue with no intersegment revenue and no segment capital expenditure at all in the basis quarter. The highest-margin vertical in the company at a 64.5% EBITDA margin. Reported revenue grew 16% in 2026 Q2 on concentrate sales +1 and price/mix +3, with an 11-point currency tailwind doing the rest.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$1.57B
Reported
2025 Q4
$1.70B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$1.68B
Reported
2026 Q2
$1.84B
Reported
Concentrate sales to bottling partners in Mexico, Brazil and the rest of Latin America
Sequential growth
+1.3%/qtr
decaying toward +0.9%
1.35% is the 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate; the trailing four-quarter rate of 3.75% is currency, not trend.
Latin America
Latest: $2.26B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.53B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.65B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.64B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.65B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.48B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.59B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.57B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.70B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.68B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.84B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.86B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.89B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.91B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.93B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.96B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.98B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.00B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.02B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.04B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.06B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.08B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.10B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.12B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.14B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.16B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.18B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.20B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.22B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.24B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.26B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of trying: the fitted amplitude is 0.041 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.038, so the spread is the signal. A four-factor vector here would encode noise.
- This is the most currency-exposed line in the model. Of the 16% reported growth in the basis quarter, 11 points were currency and 5 were organic, which is why the terminal rate is set at 0.9% a quarter rather than anywhere near the trailing reported pace.
- The terminal EBITDA margin is trimmed 1.5 points below the 64.5% basis quarter for the same reason: that margin was struck on revenue an 11-point currency tailwind had already inflated.