KO · Forward model · Braun case
The Braun case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Six verticals on third-party (external) segment revenue. That choice is deliberate: third-party segment revenue sums to consolidated net operating revenues exactly, whereas total segment revenue would need a -$252M eliminations plug. Segment EBITDA margins are therefore struck on third-party revenue so that revenue times margin returns the right EBITDA dollars, and the check holds at the basis quarter - segment EBITDA of $5,178M less the $240M Corporate EBITDA drag is $4,938M, which is reported operating income of $4,672M plus $266M of depreciation and amortisation. History runs ten quarters, 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Eight of those are the two complete calendar-year windows the seasonal factors are fitted on; the 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 points in every vertical are derived as full year less nine months and are flagged estimated. Twelve quarters do not exist and never will: Global Ventures was sunset on 1 January 2025 and only 2024 was recast, so the 2023 quarters survive only on the superseded six-segment basis. Two disclosed facts drive the near path and both are modelled explicitly. Coca-Cola's quarters end on a Friday while its year ends on 31 December, so 2026 Q1 carried six more days than 2025 Q1 and 2026 Q4 will carry six fewer than 2025 Q4; every seasonal factor here was fitted on revenue per day for that reason, which also means a fixed four-factor vector cannot track a day count that rotates year to year and about 1.5% of unmodelled quarterly error remains. And the African bottling operations, under definitive agreement to Coca-Cola HBC with closing expected by the end of 2026, are carried as a -74% level step on Bottling Investments dated to the second projected quarter, removing about $1,127M a quarter. Coca-Cola does not disclose that business's standalone revenue; that figure is the average of two independent derivations bounding it between $1.0bn and $1.4bn, it is assumed, and the bear and bull cases sit at the two ends of that range. What is deliberately absent: the IRS litigation, whose potential impact the company puts at $14.0bn with $6.0bn already on deposit and a $529M recorded estimate, is a contingency rather than an operating driver and is not modelled as a margin or growth effect anywhere in this spec. Free cash flow here is EBITDA less capital expenditure less tax on that difference, the engine's uniform definition; it carries no interest expense and no working capital, so it is not comparable with the company's approximately $12.4bn free cash flow guidance and should not be read against it. One tension is worth stating rather than tuning away. Every driver here is the segment's own 2024 Q2 to 2026 Q2 compound quarterly rate, not a guided quarter, so the base path puts 2026 Q3 at $13.39bn, up 7.5% year over year - ahead of what the company's own third-quarter considerations (about a point of currency tailwind against about a point of acquisitions-and-divestitures headwind, on top of organic growth) would imply. The two-year rate was kept because one guided quarter is a worse estimator of a five-year path than eight quarters of segment history; the gap is real and it is the first thing the 2026 Q3 print will test.
Henrique Braun's first full quarter as chief executive delivered 5% global unit case volume growth led by India, China, the United States and Brazil, with the FIFA World Cup activation contributing to 5% Trademark Coca-Cola volume growth and 8% Powerade volume growth. The case is that the marketing machine converts events into cases, and that concentrate-led growth - four points of concentrate against two of price and mix - is more durable than the pricing-led growth of the prior two years. The lift is put where the volume actually is, on Asia Pacific and Latin America, rather than spread evenly. What this case does not reach: the World Cup does not repeat in the second half, the company itself says concentrate shipments will lag volume by a further point in the third quarter, and none of it touches the day-count or African bottling arithmetic that shapes the fourth.
Latest: $15.16B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $11.30B |
| 2024Q2 | $12.36B |
| 2024Q3 | $11.85B |
| 2024Q4 | $11.54B |
| 2025Q1 | $11.13B |
| 2025Q2 | $12.54B |
| 2025Q3 | $12.46B |
| 2025Q4 | $11.82B |
| 2026Q1 | $12.47B |
| 2026Q2 | $13.38B |
| 2026Q3E | $13.41B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.19B |
| 2027Q1E | $11.60B |
| 2027Q2E | $12.86B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.87B |
| 2027Q4E | $11.72B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.14B |
| 2028Q2E | $13.44B |
| 2028Q3E | $13.44B |
| 2028Q4E | $12.22B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.66B |
| 2029Q2E | $14.00B |
| 2029Q3E | $14.01B |
| 2029Q4E | $12.73B |
| 2030Q1E | $13.18B |
| 2030Q2E | $14.58B |
| 2030Q3E | $14.58B |
| 2030Q4E | $13.25B |
| 2031Q1E | $13.72B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.16B |
What drives each segment
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Growth pathConcentrate and finished-product sales across Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East and Africa, plus Costa (excluding ready-to-drink), innocent and dogadan, which moved here when Global Ventures was sunset on 1 January 2025. $3,087M of third-party revenue in the basis quarter, 23.1% of the group. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 2% on concentrate sales +1, price/mix +1, currency +2 and acquisitions and divestitures -3.
Latest: $3.62B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $2.44B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.87B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.56B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.42B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.48B |
| 2025Q2 | $3.01B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.82B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.53B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.81B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.09B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.85B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.52B |
| 2027Q1E | $2.75B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.20B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.95B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.61B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.84B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.31B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.05B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.69B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.93B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.41B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.14B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.77B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.02B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.52B |
| 2030Q3E | $3.23B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.86B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.11B |
| 2031Q2E | $3.62B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 points are derived, not reported: full-year recast third-party revenue from the FY2025 10-K segment note less the nine-month figure in the matching Q3 10-Q ($10,278M less $7,863M, and $10,833M less $8,307M). They are flagged estimated for that reason.
- Seasonality is day-normalised before it is fitted, because Coca-Cola's quarters are not equal in length. The amplitude is 0.223 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.043, and both 2024 and 2025 agree on a Q2 peak and a Q4 trough.
- Reported revenue here is materially more volatile than organic revenue: Turkish lira and Egyptian pound exposure, and a continuing structural headwind from the 2025 sale of the Nigeria finished-product operations.
Latin America
Growth pathMexico, Brazil and the rest of Latin America, almost entirely concentrate: $1,839M of third-party revenue with no intersegment revenue and no segment capital expenditure at all in the basis quarter. The highest-margin vertical in the company at a 64.5% EBITDA margin. Reported revenue grew 16% in 2026 Q2 on concentrate sales +1 and price/mix +3, with an 11-point currency tailwind doing the rest.
Latest: $2.40B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.53B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.65B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.64B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.65B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.48B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.59B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.57B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.70B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.68B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.84B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.87B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.90B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.93B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.96B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.98B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.01B |
| 2028Q1E | $2.04B |
| 2028Q2E | $2.07B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.10B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.12B |
| 2029Q1E | $2.15B |
| 2029Q2E | $2.18B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.20B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.23B |
| 2030Q1E | $2.26B |
| 2030Q2E | $2.29B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.32B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.35B |
| 2031Q1E | $2.37B |
| 2031Q2E | $2.40B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Left aseasonal on the evidence, not for want of trying: the fitted amplitude is 0.041 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.038, so the spread is the signal. A four-factor vector here would encode noise.
- This is the most currency-exposed line in the model. Of the 16% reported growth in the basis quarter, 11 points were currency and 5 were organic, which is why the terminal rate is set at 0.9% a quarter rather than anywhere near the trailing reported pace.
- The terminal EBITDA margin is trimmed 1.5 points below the 64.5% basis quarter for the same reason: that margin was struck on revenue an 11-point currency tailwind had already inflated.
North America
Growth pathThe United States and Canada, the largest vertical at $5,405M of third-party revenue, 40.4% of the group, and the only geographic segment carrying material capital expenditure at 3.3% of its own revenue. In 2026 Q2 reported revenue grew 7% on concentrate sales +3 and price/mix +4, with no currency and no structural effect at all: the cleanest organic line in the company.
Latest: $6.77B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $4.22B |
| 2024Q2 | $4.87B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.04B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.73B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.36B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.03B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.25B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.94B |
| 2026Q1 | $4.89B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.41B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.70B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.17B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.05B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.70B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.99B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.43B |
| 2028Q1E | $5.29B |
| 2028Q2E | $5.97B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.27B |
| 2028Q4E | $5.68B |
| 2029Q1E | $5.53B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.23B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.55B |
| 2029Q4E | $5.93B |
| 2030Q1E | $5.77B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.50B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.82B |
| 2030Q4E | $6.18B |
| 2031Q1E | $6.01B |
| 2031Q2E | $6.77B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The cleanest seasonal shape in the group: amplitude 0.147 against a worst-case window-to-window spread of 0.013, roughly eleven times the noise, with the summer peak and the Q1 trough repeating in both windows.
- The 2025 BodyArmor trademark impairment of $960M was attributed to a slowing projected long-term growth rate for the category and an intensifying competitive environment. That is a disclosed management markdown of one of this vertical's growth engines and it is not separately modelled here.
- United States unit case volume is about 16% of worldwide volume against roughly 40% of revenue, so this line depends on price and mix holding rather than on cases.
Asia Pacific
Growth pathIndia, China, Japan, ASEAN and the rest of Asia Pacific: $1,487M of third-party revenue plus $94M of intersegment revenue that is deliberately excluded here. Volume-led and price-poor. In 2026 Q2 concentrate sales grew 11% against price/mix of -9%, for reported revenue growth of 1% on unit case volume growth of 8%. India and China led the company's 5% global volume growth.
Latest: $1.93B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.26B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.40B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.28B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.18B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.32B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.46B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.44B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.10B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.43B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.49B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.43B |
| 2026Q4E | $1.16B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.45B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.57B |
| 2027Q3E | $1.51B |
| 2027Q4E | $1.22B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.52B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.65B |
| 2028Q3E | $1.59B |
| 2028Q4E | $1.29B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.61B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.74B |
| 2029Q3E | $1.67B |
| 2029Q4E | $1.36B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.69B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.83B |
| 2030Q3E | $1.76B |
| 2030Q4E | $1.43B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.78B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.93B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The Q4 factor is the least stable number in this model. The two annual windows put it at 0.886 and 0.783, a spread of 0.103 against an amplitude of 0.261. The shipped vector uses the 0.835 average: the direction of the Q4 trough is reliable, its depth is not, and the vertical is 11% of group revenue so the bounded error is about 0.6% of the group.
- Volume is arriving and revenue per case is not. Price/mix has been negative and the terminal growth rate of 0.8% a quarter assumes that continues to offset most of the volume leverage rather than assuming it resolves.
- Segment capital expenditure was zero in the basis quarter, so the capex intensity is an honest zero rather than an omission.
Bottling Investments
Growth pathThe consolidated bottling operations Coca-Cola still owns outright, principally Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, which is under a definitive agreement to be sold to Coca-Cola HBC with closing expected by the end of 2026. $1,525M of third-party revenue at an 11.6% EBITDA margin and 6.0% capital intensity: the finished-product economics the rest of the company has spent a decade refranchising away. This line shrinks structurally, not cyclically.
Latest: $403M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $1.81B |
| 2024Q2 | $1.54B |
| 2024Q3 | $1.31B |
| 2024Q4 | $1.55B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.46B |
| 2025Q2 | $1.41B |
| 2025Q3 | $1.34B |
| 2025Q4 | $1.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.64B |
| 2026Q2 | $1.52B |
| 2026Q3E | $1.53B |
| 2026Q4E | $397M |
| 2027Q1E | $397M |
| 2027Q2E | $397M |
| 2027Q3E | $397M |
| 2027Q4E | $397M |
| 2028Q1E | $398M |
| 2028Q2E | $398M |
| 2028Q3E | $398M |
| 2028Q4E | $399M |
| 2029Q1E | $399M |
| 2029Q2E | $399M |
| 2029Q3E | $400M |
| 2029Q4E | $400M |
| 2030Q1E | $401M |
| 2030Q2E | $401M |
| 2030Q3E | $401M |
| 2030Q4E | $402M |
| 2031Q1E | $402M |
| 2031Q2E | $403M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The one-off step of -74% dated to the second projected quarter is the African bottling deconsolidation. It removes $1,127M of quarterly revenue, which is the average of the two independent bounds the research derived: $1,199M from the shrinking full-year acquisitions-and-divestitures guidance, and about $1,060M from the second-half consensus arithmetic. Coca-Cola does not disclose Coca-Cola Beverages Africa's standalone revenue, so this figure is assumed inside a $1.0-1.4bn range and nothing more.
- The step lands after one quarter rather than at the basis quarter because the company's own third-quarter considerations carry only about one point of acquisitions-and-divestitures headwind. The exit is a fourth-quarter event on what has been filed, and dating it is what keeps 2026 Q3 from being written down a quarter early.
- Left aseasonal deliberately. The fitted amplitude of 0.239 sits against a worst-case window spread of 0.129 and the Q1 and Q3 factors move in opposite directions between the two windows: that variation is refranchising in Nigeria, India and Ghana and the Africa held-for-sale reclassification, not season.
- The bear and bull cases move this step to the two ends of the derived range rather than moving a growth rate, because a deconsolidation is a level event on a date and not a rate.
Corporate
Growth pathThe third-party revenue booked in the Corporate reconciling line, $37M in the basis quarter and 0.28% of the group. It is carried as a vertical only so that the six lines sum exactly to reported consolidated revenue with no elimination plug. The Corporate cost centre itself, a $256M quarterly operating loss, sits in corporate overhead, and the $101M of Corporate capital expenditure sits in the corporate programme.
Latest: $42M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $31M |
| 2024Q2 | $35M |
| 2024Q3 | $21M |
| 2024Q4 | $23M |
| 2025Q1 | $26M |
| 2025Q2 | $39M |
| 2025Q3 | $34M |
| 2025Q4 | $45M |
| 2026Q1 | $32M |
| 2026Q2 | $37M |
| 2026Q3E | $37M |
| 2026Q4E | $38M |
| 2027Q1E | $38M |
| 2027Q2E | $38M |
| 2027Q3E | $38M |
| 2027Q4E | $39M |
| 2028Q1E | $39M |
| 2028Q2E | $39M |
| 2028Q3E | $39M |
| 2028Q4E | $40M |
| 2029Q1E | $40M |
| 2029Q2E | $40M |
| 2029Q3E | $40M |
| 2029Q4E | $41M |
| 2030Q1E | $41M |
| 2030Q2E | $41M |
| 2030Q3E | $41M |
| 2030Q4E | $42M |
| 2031Q1E | $42M |
| 2031Q2E | $42M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Carried at a zero EBITDA margin on purpose. The Corporate operating loss of $256M less $16M of Corporate depreciation is a $240M EBITDA drag, and it is modelled once, as the 1.79% group overhead rate. Giving this line a margin as well would double-count it.
- Capital intensity is zero here for the same reason. The $101M of Corporate capital expenditure disclosed in the basis quarter would be 273% of a $37M revenue line, which is a ratio artefact rather than economics, so it is carried as a flat corporate programme instead.
- Left aseasonal: on a line that ranges between $21M and $45M the fitted amplitude of 0.325 sits against a window spread of 0.394, so the noise exceeds the signal outright.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 release and guidance
- Jul 28, 2026 First quarter 2026 financial results were impacted by six additional days as compared to first quarter 2025, and fourth quarter 2026 financial results will be impacted by six fewer days as compared to fourth quarter 2025.
- Jul 28, 2026 Approx. 1% currency tailwind [and] 2% to 3% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures.
Sell-side estimates
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
The three 2026 guidance updates
- Feb 10, 2026 comparable EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 7% to 8% versus $3.00 in 2025 [and] organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth of 4% to 5%.
- Jul 28, 2026 Comparable EPS (non-GAAP) 9% to 10% growth, which includes: Approx. 3% currency tailwind [and] Approx. 1% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures. Prior: 8% to 9% growth.
- Jul 28, 2026 comparable operating margin (non-GAAP) was 35.6% versus 34.7% in the prior year.
Braun case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Braun column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Q2 2026 volume and campaign disclosure
- Jul 28, 2026 Global Unit Case Volume Grew 5%... led by India, China, the United States and Brazil.
- Jul 28, 2026 organic revenues (non-GAAP) grew 6%, driven by a 4% increase in concentrate sales and 2% growth in price/mix.
- Jul 28, 2026 Coca-Cola Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Guidance
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $63.02B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $56.71B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $22.56B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 22.0x |
| Terminal value | $496.24B |
| Discounted at 8.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $337.73B |
| Enterprise value | $400.76B |
| Net cash | -$27.17B |
| Equity value | $373.58B |
| Shares | 4.30B |
| Fair value per share | $86.83 |
| Against the current price of $89.06 | -3% |
At $90.08 and $27.17bn of net debt the enterprise is worth $414.7bn, which is 24.2 times trailing EBITDA once the $1,274M African bottling charge is added back, and 26.1 times without that adjustment. The 21.0x exit is three turns below the adjusted figure: a mature staple should not be assumed to hold a peak multiple five years out. PepsiCo's 12.5x is not the target - that is a business-model gap between a concentrate licensor and a consolidated snacks and bottling group, not a mispricing - and the answer here is more sensitive to this multiple than to any operating assumption in the spec.
Read the other way round: at $89.06 the market is paying 22.6x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
Capex outside the verticals
Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.
Corporate capital expenditure
2026 Q3 → 2031 Q2The $101M of capital expenditure disclosed against the Corporate reconciling line in 2026 Q2, held flat across the horizon. It is carried here rather than inside a vertical because it belongs to none of them: as a percentage of the $37M of Corporate third-party revenue it would be 273%, an artefact of the denominator. This is not an invented programme - it is a disclosed quarterly outlay given a shape the engine can carry.
The projected path
| Quarter | Europe, Middle East & Africa | Latin America | North America | Asia Pacific | Bottling Investments | Corporate | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $2.85B | $1.87B | $5.70B | $1.43B | $1.53B | $37M | $13.41B | +8% | $4.93B | $424M | $3.61B | +35 | $3.54B |
| 2026 Q4E | $2.52B | $1.90B | $5.17B | $1.16B | $397M | $38M | $11.19B | -5% | $4.41B | $334M | $3.27B | +24 | $3.14B |
| 2027 Q1E | $2.75B | $1.93B | $5.05B | $1.45B | $397M | $38M | $11.60B | -7% | $4.61B | $333M | $3.43B | +23 | $3.23B |
| 2027 Q2E | $3.20B | $1.96B | $5.70B | $1.57B | $397M | $38M | $12.86B | -4% | $5.08B | $362M | $3.78B | +25 | $3.50B |
| 2027 Q3E | $2.95B | $1.98B | $5.99B | $1.51B | $397M | $38M | $12.87B | -4% | $5.06B | $368M | $3.76B | +25 | $3.41B |
| 2027 Q4E | $2.61B | $2.01B | $5.43B | $1.22B | $397M | $39M | $11.72B | +5% | $4.63B | $344M | $3.44B | +34 | $3.06B |
| 2028 Q1E | $2.84B | $2.04B | $5.29B | $1.52B | $398M | $39M | $12.14B | +5% | $4.83B | $343M | $3.60B | +34 | $3.14B |
| 2028 Q2E | $3.31B | $2.07B | $5.97B | $1.65B | $398M | $39M | $13.44B | +4% | $5.32B | $373M | $3.96B | +34 | $3.40B |
| 2028 Q3E | $3.05B | $2.10B | $6.27B | $1.59B | $398M | $39M | $13.44B | +4% | $5.29B | $379M | $3.94B | +34 | $3.31B |
| 2028 Q4E | $2.69B | $2.12B | $5.68B | $1.29B | $399M | $40M | $12.22B | +4% | $4.85B | $354M | $3.60B | +34 | $2.97B |
| 2029 Q1E | $2.93B | $2.15B | $5.53B | $1.61B | $399M | $40M | $12.66B | +4% | $5.05B | $352M | $3.76B | +34 | $3.05B |
| 2029 Q2E | $3.41B | $2.18B | $6.23B | $1.74B | $399M | $40M | $14.00B | +4% | $5.55B | $383M | $4.14B | +34 | $3.29B |
| 2029 Q3E | $3.14B | $2.20B | $6.55B | $1.67B | $400M | $40M | $14.01B | +4% | $5.53B | $389M | $4.11B | +34 | $3.20B |
| 2029 Q4E | $2.77B | $2.23B | $5.93B | $1.36B | $400M | $41M | $12.73B | +4% | $5.06B | $363M | $3.76B | +34 | $2.87B |
| 2030 Q1E | $3.02B | $2.26B | $5.77B | $1.69B | $401M | $41M | $13.18B | +4% | $5.27B | $362M | $3.93B | +34 | $2.95B |
| 2030 Q2E | $3.52B | $2.29B | $6.50B | $1.83B | $401M | $41M | $14.58B | +4% | $5.79B | $394M | $4.32B | +34 | $3.18B |
| 2030 Q3E | $3.23B | $2.32B | $6.82B | $1.76B | $401M | $41M | $14.58B | +4% | $5.76B | $400M | $4.30B | +34 | $3.10B |
| 2030 Q4E | $2.86B | $2.35B | $6.18B | $1.43B | $402M | $42M | $13.25B | +4% | $5.27B | $373M | $3.92B | +34 | $2.78B |
| 2031 Q1E | $3.11B | $2.37B | $6.01B | $1.78B | $402M | $42M | $13.72B | +4% | $5.49B | $371M | $4.10B | +34 | $2.85B |
| 2031 Q2E | $3.62B | $2.40B | $6.77B | $1.93B | $403M | $42M | $15.16B | +4% | $6.03B | $404M | $4.51B | +34 | $3.07B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | verticals, corporate, valuation, scenarios | $80.21 | First published model, built from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Six third-party revenue lines - the five reportable segments plus the Corporate reconciling line - which sum to reported consolidated revenue in all ten historical quarters with no elimination plug. Day-normalised seasonality on EMEA, North America and Asia Pacific; the other three verticals left aseasonal on the evidence. The African bottling deconsolidation is a dated level step on Bottling Investments rather than a growth rate. |