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GRAB · Forward model · Mobility · Oey 2028 case

What has to happen in Mobility

Model as of

This page changes Mobility inside the complete GRAB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GRAB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $5.22 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $676M 28% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.42B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own published destination: $1.5bn of Adjusted EBITDA in 2028 on a 20% 2025-2028 revenue CAGR. From FY2025's $3,370m that implies about $5.82bn of FY2028 revenue and a roughly 25.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin against 16.9% in the basis quarter. These deltas reach $5.89bn and $1.51bn, so the case is honest arithmetic rather than a headline. Two things it does not achieve. The target was set on 11 February 2026 and was not repeated on the Q2 2026 call in either of two independent transcripts. And the 80% conversion attached to it is conversion of a company-defined Adjusted Free Cash Flow that adds back loan-book growth, not of free cash flow as this model computes it. Fair value $5.22.

Mobility

Basis quarter$331M
Final quarter$676M
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix28%

Ride-hailing and taxi across eight countries, plus GrabRentals and the GrabCab fleet. The profit engine and the slowest grower: $331m of revenue and $191m of Segment Adjusted EBITDA, a 57.7% margin on revenue and 8.6% of GMV. Same disclosure as Deliveries, so the driver is GMV times take rate - but here the take rate is falling, from 15.63% to 14.95% over six quarters, and revenue fell sequentially in the basis quarter for the first time.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $317M Reported
2025 Q4 $325M Reported
2026 Q1 $337M Reported
2026 Q2 $331M Reported
Ride-hailingTaxi and GrabCabGrabRentalsAdvertising attributed to Mobility
Units 2214/qtr growing +3.5% per quarter Mobility GMV, $2,214M in the June quarter, down $9m sequentially. Units are millions of dollars of GMV.
Price per unit $149503 drifting −0.1% per quarter Revenue per $1M of GMV: a 14.950% take rate, the lowest in the six-quarter series.
Mobility

Latest: $676M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $282M
2025Q2 $295M
2025Q3 $317M
2025Q4 $325M
2026Q1 $337M
2026Q2 $331M
2026Q3E $343M
2026Q4E $355M
2027Q1E $368M
2027Q2E $381M
2027Q3E $395M
2027Q4E $409M
2028Q1E $424M
2028Q2E $439M
2028Q3E $455M
2028Q4E $472M
2029Q1E $489M
2029Q2E $507M
2029Q3E $525M
2029Q4E $545M
2030Q1E $565M
2030Q2E $585M
2030Q3E $607M
2030Q4E $629M
2031Q1E $652M
2031Q2E $676M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Autonomous vehicles are deliberately not a vertical. Grab discloses no AV revenue, and an autonomous trip that replaces a human one already sits inside this GMV, so a separate line would count the same trip twice. Anthony Tan said on the Q2 2026 call that Grab aims to launch its first revenue-generating point-to-point AV service in Punggol, Singapore in Q4 2026; it lives in the margin glide and the scenarios, nowhere else.
  • The Q2 2026 sequential decline is small in dollars - $6m of revenue on $9m of GMV - but it is the first in the series and it arrives with the lowest take rate in the series. The model does not smooth it over: the price drift stays negative for years.
  • Grab does not publish Mobility trips, fares or Mobility MTUs as levels, only YoY growth rates, so GMV is the only per-segment volume that exists as a number. Transactions grew 28% YoY against GMV's 18%, which is the affordability push in one comparison.
  • In April 2026 Grab was awarded the inaugural International Cross-border Ride-hail Service Operator Licence between Singapore and Johor. No revenue has been attached to it by the company and none is assumed here.
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