GRAB · Forward model · Financial Services · Oey 2028 case
What has to happen in Financial Services
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Financial Services
Basis quarter$134M
Final quarter$364M
Implied CAGR+22%
Final revenue mix15%
GrabFin plus three Digibanks - GXS Bank (Singapore), GXBank (Malaysia) and Superbank (Indonesia) - lending into the Grab ecosystem. $134m of revenue, +59% YoY, and still $(15)m at the segment line. The gross loan portfolio reached $2,318m and customer deposits $2.5bn. This is the fastest-growing and only loss-making segment, and the one whose perimeter keeps changing, so it runs on a growth driver rather than a volume-times-price one.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$90M
Reported
2025 Q4
$99M
Reported
2026 Q1
$107M
Reported
2026 Q2
$134M
Reported
Lending through GrabFin and the DigibanksDigital banking deposits and net interest incomePaymentsInsurance
Sequential growth
+8.0%/qtr
decaying toward +3.0%
The six-quarter QoQ range was 7%-12% before Superbank. 8% holds the trend without pricing the unquantified Stash step.
Financial Services
Latest: $364M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $75M |
| 2025Q2 | $84M |
| 2025Q3 | $90M |
| 2025Q4 | $99M |
| 2026Q1 | $107M |
| 2026Q2 | $134M |
| 2026Q3E | $145M |
| 2026Q4E | $156M |
| 2027Q1E | $167M |
| 2027Q2E | $178M |
| 2027Q3E | $189M |
| 2027Q4E | $200M |
| 2028Q1E | $211M |
| 2028Q2E | $222M |
| 2028Q3E | $234M |
| 2028Q4E | $245M |
| 2029Q1E | $256M |
| 2029Q2E | $267M |
| 2029Q3E | $279M |
| 2029Q4E | $291M |
| 2030Q1E | $302M |
| 2030Q2E | $314M |
| 2030Q3E | $326M |
| 2030Q4E | $339M |
| 2031Q1E | $351M |
| 2031Q2E | $364M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- No unit driver is defensible here. Revenue per dollar of gross loan portfolio collapsed from 12.0% in Q1 2025 to 5.78% in the basis quarter as the book outgrew the revenue, and the metric itself changed basis mid-window: the Q2 and Q3 2025 releases report a net loan portfolio, the Q1 and Q2 2026 releases a gross one with restated comparatives. The $2,318m book is recorded as an observation, not a multiplier.
- The perimeter moved twice inside the window. Superbank consolidated from June 2026, so only one month of it is in the basis quarter, and Stash closed on 1 July 2026 and consolidates only from Q3 2026. Neither contribution has been sized by the company, so the Q3 2026 step is not inside the 8% growth rate; it is an unpriced upside flagged here instead of hidden.
- Grab publishes no revenue split between lending, payments, insurance and banking net interest income, and none has been created here. The segment is modelled as one line because that is the only way it is reported.
- Credit cost, not revenue, is what stands between this segment and its guided H2 2026 breakeven. Net impairment losses on financial assets more than doubled YoY to $72m on Digibank expected credit losses, plus a separate $15m day-one expected credit loss on the acquired Superbank portfolio that Adjusted EBITDA adds back.
- Loan-book growth is why Grab's Adjusted Free Cash Flow and this site's free cash flow diverge: the company adds back $177m of loan-receivable growth in the quarter and this model does not model the book at all. The gap widens as the book grows.