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GRAB · Forward model · Deliveries · Oey 2028 case

What has to happen in Deliveries

Model as of

This page changes Deliveries inside the complete GRAB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GRAB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $5.22 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.36B 57% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.13B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Management's own published destination: $1.5bn of Adjusted EBITDA in 2028 on a 20% 2025-2028 revenue CAGR. From FY2025's $3,370m that implies about $5.82bn of FY2028 revenue and a roughly 25.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin against 16.9% in the basis quarter. These deltas reach $5.89bn and $1.51bn, so the case is honest arithmetic rather than a headline. Two things it does not achieve. The target was set on 11 February 2026 and was not repeated on the Q2 2026 call in either of two independent transcripts. And the 80% conversion attached to it is conversion of a company-defined Adjusted Free Cash Flow that adds back loan-book growth, not of free cash flow as this model computes it. Fair value $5.22.

Deliveries

Basis quarter$531M
Final quarter$1.36B
Implied CAGR+21%
Final revenue mix57%

Food, grocery and parcel delivery, the Jaya Grocer and Everrise supermarkets, and the GrabAds advertising sold against the marketplace. $531m of revenue in the basis quarter, 53% of the group, on $4,249m of GMV. Both halves are disclosed every quarter, so the driver is GMV in dollars times revenue per dollar of GMV. The take rate has held between 12.32% and 13.26% for six quarters while advertising has grown into it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $465M Reported
2025 Q4 $481M Reported
2026 Q1 $510M Reported
2026 Q2 $531M Reported
Food deliveryGrocery and mart deliveryParcel deliveryJaya Grocer and Everrise offline storesGrabAds advertising
Units 4249/qtr growing +4.5% per quarter Deliveries GMV, $4,249M in the June quarter. Units here are millions of dollars of GMV, disclosed every quarter.
Price per unit $124971 drifting +0.2% per quarter Revenue per $1M of GMV: a 12.497% take rate, inside the 12.32%-13.26% band held for six quarters.
Deliveries

Latest: $1.36B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $415M
2025Q2 $439M
2025Q3 $465M
2025Q4 $481M
2026Q1 $510M
2026Q2 $531M
2026Q3E $557M
2026Q4E $584M
2027Q1E $613M
2027Q2E $643M
2027Q3E $674M
2027Q4E $706M
2028Q1E $740M
2028Q2E $776M
2028Q3E $813M
2028Q4E $852M
2029Q1E $893M
2029Q2E $936M
2029Q3E $980M
2029Q4E $1.03B
2030Q1E $1.08B
2030Q2E $1.13B
2030Q3E $1.18B
2030Q4E $1.24B
2031Q1E $1.30B
2031Q2E $1.36B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $96m on $531m of revenue is stated before regional corporate costs, which Grab explicitly does not attribute to any segment. Charging them here as well would double-count; the corporate line is carried once at group level.
  • Deliveries Segment Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of GMV was 2.3% in the basis quarter, up 45bps YoY from 1.8%. That is the cleanest margin trend in the whole disclosure, and it is what the terminal margin of 26% of revenue is built on.
  • GrabAds is named as a driver of both revenue and margin but has not been sized since Q2 2025, when the release disclosed an annualized run-rate of $236m. Advertising is therefore not a sub-line here; it sits inside the take rate.
  • foodpanda Taiwan closes in H2 2026 into this segment and would be Grab's first market outside Southeast Asia. Grab has disclosed the $600m price and nothing about the revenue, so it appears only as a corporate capital programme and adds no revenue anywhere in this model.
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