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GRAB · Forward model · Mobility · Bull case

What has to happen in Mobility

Model as of

This page changes Mobility inside the complete GRAB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GRAB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $6.49 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $793M 26% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $4.55B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Grab raised both halves of FY2026 guidance one quarter after leaving them unchanged, and says the loss-making segment turns positive inside the guided year. Deliveries GMV holds nearer its trailing 6.3% quarterly compounding, volume runs a point a quarter faster across the group, segment margins sit 2.5 points above June's, Financial Services crosses over early, and the exit holds close to the 3.2x the tape pays today. FY2028 Adjusted EBITDA reaches about $1.48bn, which is management's own 2028 destination arrived at by growth rather than by re-rating. Fair value $6.49.

Mobility

Basis quarter$331M
Final quarter$793M
Implied CAGR+19%
Final revenue mix26%

Ride-hailing and taxi across eight countries, plus GrabRentals and the GrabCab fleet. The profit engine and the slowest grower: $331m of revenue and $191m of Segment Adjusted EBITDA, a 57.7% margin on revenue and 8.6% of GMV. Same disclosure as Deliveries, so the driver is GMV times take rate - but here the take rate is falling, from 15.63% to 14.95% over six quarters, and revenue fell sequentially in the basis quarter for the first time.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $317M Reported
2025 Q4 $325M Reported
2026 Q1 $337M Reported
2026 Q2 $331M Reported
Ride-hailingTaxi and GrabCabGrabRentalsAdvertising attributed to Mobility
Units 2214/qtr growing +3.5% per quarter Mobility GMV, $2,214M in the June quarter, down $9m sequentially. Units are millions of dollars of GMV.
Price per unit $149503 drifting −0.1% per quarter Revenue per $1M of GMV: a 14.950% take rate, the lowest in the six-quarter series.
Mobility

Latest: $793M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $282M
2025Q2 $295M
2025Q3 $317M
2025Q4 $325M
2026Q1 $337M
2026Q2 $331M
2026Q3E $345M
2026Q4E $361M
2027Q1E $377M
2027Q2E $393M
2027Q3E $411M
2027Q4E $429M
2028Q1E $448M
2028Q2E $468M
2028Q3E $489M
2028Q4E $511M
2029Q1E $534M
2029Q2E $558M
2029Q3E $583M
2029Q4E $609M
2030Q1E $636M
2030Q2E $665M
2030Q3E $695M
2030Q4E $726M
2031Q1E $759M
2031Q2E $793M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Autonomous vehicles are deliberately not a vertical. Grab discloses no AV revenue, and an autonomous trip that replaces a human one already sits inside this GMV, so a separate line would count the same trip twice. Anthony Tan said on the Q2 2026 call that Grab aims to launch its first revenue-generating point-to-point AV service in Punggol, Singapore in Q4 2026; it lives in the margin glide and the scenarios, nowhere else.
  • The Q2 2026 sequential decline is small in dollars - $6m of revenue on $9m of GMV - but it is the first in the series and it arrives with the lowest take rate in the series. The model does not smooth it over: the price drift stays negative for years.
  • Grab does not publish Mobility trips, fares or Mobility MTUs as levels, only YoY growth rates, so GMV is the only per-segment volume that exists as a number. Transactions grew 28% YoY against GMV's 18%, which is the affordability push in one comparison.
  • In April 2026 Grab was awarded the inaugural International Cross-border Ride-hail Service Operator Licence between Singapore and Johor. No revenue has been attached to it by the company and none is assumed here.
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