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GRAB · Forward model · Deliveries · Bull case

What has to happen in Deliveries

Model as of

This page changes Deliveries inside the complete GRAB model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GRAB forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $6.49 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.86B 60% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.22B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Grab raised both halves of FY2026 guidance one quarter after leaving them unchanged, and says the loss-making segment turns positive inside the guided year. Deliveries GMV holds nearer its trailing 6.3% quarterly compounding, volume runs a point a quarter faster across the group, segment margins sit 2.5 points above June's, Financial Services crosses over early, and the exit holds close to the 3.2x the tape pays today. FY2028 Adjusted EBITDA reaches about $1.48bn, which is management's own 2028 destination arrived at by growth rather than by re-rating. Fair value $6.49.

Deliveries

Basis quarter$531M
Final quarter$1.86B
Implied CAGR+29%
Final revenue mix60%

Food, grocery and parcel delivery, the Jaya Grocer and Everrise supermarkets, and the GrabAds advertising sold against the marketplace. $531m of revenue in the basis quarter, 53% of the group, on $4,249m of GMV. Both halves are disclosed every quarter, so the driver is GMV in dollars times revenue per dollar of GMV. The take rate has held between 12.32% and 13.26% for six quarters while advertising has grown into it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $465M Reported
2025 Q4 $481M Reported
2026 Q1 $510M Reported
2026 Q2 $531M Reported
Food deliveryGrocery and mart deliveryParcel deliveryJaya Grocer and Everrise offline storesGrabAds advertising
Units 4249/qtr growing +4.5% per quarter Deliveries GMV, $4,249M in the June quarter. Units here are millions of dollars of GMV, disclosed every quarter.
Price per unit $124971 drifting +0.2% per quarter Revenue per $1M of GMV: a 12.497% take rate, inside the 12.32%-13.26% band held for six quarters.
Deliveries

Latest: $1.86B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $415M
2025Q2 $439M
2025Q3 $465M
2025Q4 $481M
2026Q1 $510M
2026Q2 $531M
2026Q3E $566M
2026Q4E $603M
2027Q1E $643M
2027Q2E $685M
2027Q3E $729M
2027Q4E $777M
2028Q1E $827M
2028Q2E $881M
2028Q3E $938M
2028Q4E $999M
2029Q1E $1.06B
2029Q2E $1.13B
2029Q3E $1.20B
2029Q4E $1.28B
2030Q1E $1.36B
2030Q2E $1.45B
2030Q3E $1.55B
2030Q4E $1.64B
2031Q1E $1.75B
2031Q2E $1.86B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $96m on $531m of revenue is stated before regional corporate costs, which Grab explicitly does not attribute to any segment. Charging them here as well would double-count; the corporate line is carried once at group level.
  • Deliveries Segment Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of GMV was 2.3% in the basis quarter, up 45bps YoY from 1.8%. That is the cleanest margin trend in the whole disclosure, and it is what the terminal margin of 26% of revenue is built on.
  • GrabAds is named as a driver of both revenue and margin but has not been sized since Q2 2025, when the release disclosed an annualized run-rate of $236m. Advertising is therefore not a sub-line here; it sits inside the take rate.
  • foodpanda Taiwan closes in H2 2026 into this segment and would be Grab's first market outside Southeast Asia. Grab has disclosed the $600m price and nothing about the revenue, so it appears only as a corporate capital programme and adds no revenue anywhere in this model.
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