GEV · Forward model · Wind · Bull case
What has to happen in Wind
Model as of
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Wind
Basis quarter$2.03B
Final quarter$1.75B
Implied CAGR−3%
Final revenue mix9%
Onshore and offshore wind turbines and their services. This is the segment the company is deliberately shrinking: orders fell 40% organically in the basis quarter, revenue is guided down low-double digits for 2026, and every reported quarter but one has lost money at the segment line.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2.65B
Reported
2025 Q4
$2.37B
Reported
2026 Q1
$1.43B
Reported
2026 Q2
$2.03B
Reported
Onshore Wind equipmentOnshore Wind servicesOffshore Wind
Sequential growth
−5.7%/qtr
decaying toward +0.5%
Deseasonalised trend landing 2026 revenue 11% below 2025, inside guided low-double digits.
Wind
Latest: $1.75B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q2 | $2.06B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.89B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.11B |
| 2025Q1 | $1.85B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.25B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.65B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.37B |
| 2026Q1 | $1.43B |
| 2026Q2 | $2.03B |
| 2026Q3E | $2.42B |
| 2026Q4E | $2.29B |
| 2027Q1E | $1.40B |
| 2027Q2E | $1.74B |
| 2027Q3E | $2.14B |
| 2027Q4E | $2.08B |
| 2028Q1E | $1.30B |
| 2028Q2E | $1.65B |
| 2028Q3E | $2.07B |
| 2028Q4E | $2.03B |
| 2029Q1E | $1.29B |
| 2029Q2E | $1.65B |
| 2029Q3E | $2.08B |
| 2029Q4E | $2.06B |
| 2030Q1E | $1.31B |
| 2030Q2E | $1.69B |
| 2030Q3E | $2.14B |
| 2030Q4E | $2.13B |
| 2031Q1E | $1.36B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.75B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the one place the model knowingly sits BELOW guidance. Management guides 2026 Wind segment EBITDA losses of about $400m, but the first half alone lost $657m, so the guide implies roughly +$257m of profit in the second half - a swing from the basis quarter's (13.6)% margin to about +5.5% in two quarters. A monotone glide can only reproduce that at a rate near 0.9, which would reach the 2028 terminal margin two years early and overstate Wind for the rest of the horizon.
- The 0.45 glide used here instead produces about $(0.8)bn of 2026 Wind segment EBITDA against the guided $(0.4)bn, and reaches the disclosed 6% margin during 2028 rather than in 2026. The model is therefore deliberately more conservative than management on this segment, by roughly 0.8% of company revenue.
- Wind carries the strongest seasonality of the three segments and the most convincing evidence for it: the first-quarter trough replicates almost exactly across both observable years, at 59.5% of the prior fourth quarter in 2025 and 60.5% in 2026.