CVX · Forward model · Bull case
The Bull case, 20 quarters out
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
Five verticals, four reportable segment-by-geography lines plus All Other, which is the finest cut Chevron actually reports; no Permian, Gulf of America or Guyana split is attempted because none is disclosed. The five lines sum to reported Total Revenues and Other Income in all ten quarters, to the dollar, from 2024 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Ten quarters is the whole history available on this basis: the segment presentation carrying Total Revenues and Other Income begins with the 2025 filings, whose comparatives reach 2024 Q1, and earlier 10-Qs disclose segment revenue only before and after intersegment elimination. Three quarters are marked estimated - 2024 Q1, 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q4 - because they were obtained by subtracting a cumulative period from an annual or nine-month total; all three are independently confirmed by the FY2025 10-K quarterly table. Disclosed: volumes, throughput, realisations, capex, the 2026 capex range, the Q3 2026 buyback range and the 2030 objectives. Assumed and labelled as such: every forward price path, the terminal margins, the 9% discount rate and the 7.0x exit multiple. Segment EBITDA margins are computed against post-elimination revenue, so U.S. Upstream's derived 137.7% is an arithmetic artefact of intersegment transfers rather than profitability; the model caps it at 100% and credits the $2,114M difference to U.S. Downstream, which buys those barrels, so consolidated EBITDA still reconciles to the reported $22,766M. Project Kilby carries zero revenue because no capital cost, revenue schedule or first-power date has been disclosed anywhere. No Venezuela volume is modelled: the 10-Q states production and reserves there are not included in the company's results.
Conflict-driven tightness persists, Hess and Permian volume compounds at the top of the 2-3% band, and the cost programme keeps overdelivering: $3B of structural savings landed six months early and Hess synergies came in 50% above target inside a year. Management's own bull framing is the 2030 objective of greater than 10% average annual adjusted free cash flow growth at flat prices below today's, which makes it a volume-and-cost claim rather than a price claim. The +0.7% delta plus an 8.0x exit gets there.
Latest: $63.06B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $48.72B |
| 2024Q2 | $51.18B |
| 2024Q3 | $50.67B |
| 2024Q4 | $52.23B |
| 2025Q1 | $47.61B |
| 2025Q2 | $44.82B |
| 2025Q3 | $49.73B |
| 2025Q4 | $46.87B |
| 2026Q1 | $48.61B |
| 2026Q2 | $70.06B |
| 2026Q3E | $64.27B |
| 2026Q4E | $59.03B |
| 2027Q1E | $58.79B |
| 2027Q2E | $58.11B |
| 2027Q3E | $56.69B |
| 2027Q4E | $54.44B |
| 2028Q1E | $56.04B |
| 2028Q2E | $56.74B |
| 2028Q3E | $56.34B |
| 2028Q4E | $54.83B |
| 2029Q1E | $56.99B |
| 2029Q2E | $58.13B |
| 2029Q3E | $58.03B |
| 2029Q4E | $56.70B |
| 2030Q1E | $59.11B |
| 2030Q2E | $60.42B |
| 2030Q3E | $60.42B |
| 2030Q4E | $59.11B |
| 2031Q1E | $61.67B |
| 2031Q2E | $63.06B |
What drives each segment
U.S. Upstream
Units × pricePermian, Gulf of America, DJ and the legacy Hess Bakken barrels. Volume is disclosed every quarter and is the constraint management guides to 2030; price is Brent-linked and outside the company's control. The reported revenue line is small against the barrels because roughly two-thirds of U.S. upstream production transfers to Downstream and eliminates on consolidation.
Latest: $7.26B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.62B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.39B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.37B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.54B |
| 2025Q1 | $4.42B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.31B |
| 2025Q3 | $5.76B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.51B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.12B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.61B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.64B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.74B |
| 2027Q2E | $5.80B |
| 2027Q3E | $5.87B |
| 2027Q4E | $5.94B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.02B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.11B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.19B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.28B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.37B |
| 2029Q2E | $6.46B |
| 2029Q3E | $6.56B |
| 2029Q4E | $6.65B |
| 2030Q1E | $6.75B |
| 2030Q2E | $6.85B |
| 2030Q3E | $6.95B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.05B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.15B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.26B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue per boe here is $29.67, not the disclosed $70.80 wellhead liquids realisation: the segment line is post-elimination, so the realisation is a price sensitivity and not this line's unit price.
- Venezuela is outside these volumes entirely. The 10-Q states results there have been recorded as non-equity investments since 2020, income only on cash receipt, and that production and reserves are not included in the company's results.
- The EBITDA margin is capped at 100%: the brief derives 137.7% because intersegment transfers sit in the numerator and not in the denominator. The 2,114M of basis-quarter EBITDA that the cap cannot hold is credited to U.S. Downstream, which buys those barrels, so consolidated EBITDA still reconciles to the reported 22,766M.
- Units are a quarterly barrel count built from the disclosed daily rate at 91 days, so quarters of 90 or 92 days carry about a 1% counting difference the model does not correct.
International Upstream
Units × priceTengiz, Guyana's Stabroek block through legacy Hess, Australian LNG, West Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Partitioned Zone. Volume is disclosed quarterly, and the revenue line also carries large equity-affiliate income - $1,303M from TCO and others in the basis quarter - that a pure wellhead price times volume driver would miss entirely.
Latest: $12.76B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $9.30B |
| 2024Q2 | $8.34B |
| 2024Q3 | $9.67B |
| 2024Q4 | $12.00B |
| 2025Q1 | $8.95B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.30B |
| 2025Q3 | $10.36B |
| 2025Q4 | $9.94B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.84B |
| 2026Q2 | $13.54B |
| 2026Q3E | $12.55B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.91B |
| 2027Q1E | $11.50B |
| 2027Q2E | $11.24B |
| 2027Q3E | $11.10B |
| 2027Q4E | $11.03B |
| 2028Q1E | $11.03B |
| 2028Q2E | $11.06B |
| 2028Q3E | $11.13B |
| 2028Q4E | $11.22B |
| 2029Q1E | $11.33B |
| 2029Q2E | $11.46B |
| 2029Q3E | $11.60B |
| 2029Q4E | $11.74B |
| 2030Q1E | $11.90B |
| 2030Q2E | $12.06B |
| 2030Q3E | $12.23B |
| 2030Q4E | $12.40B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.58B |
| 2031Q2E | $12.76B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Partitioned Zone volumes were curtailed in the basis quarter by the Middle East conflict, so the 1,993 MBOED starting point is a constrained number rather than a capacity number.
- The $74.63 per boe basis price sits far above the $47-60 range of the eight preceding quarters because Brent averaged $104. The driver glides it back to about $55 by 2031, which is an assumed mid-cycle level, not a disclosed forecast.
- The Iraq heads of agreement covering West Qurna 2 and Nasiriyah is pre-FID and carries no modelled volume, and no Venezuela barrel is added because those volumes are outside reported production.
U.S. Downstream
Units × priceFive U.S. refineries that ran a record 1,070 MBD of crude unit inputs at more than 97% utilisation in the basis quarter, plus marketing, lubricants and CPChem equity income. Throughput is disclosed and is close to its ceiling, so this line is a price and margin story with almost no volume headroom left.
Latest: $22.90B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $17.89B |
| 2024Q2 | $19.23B |
| 2024Q3 | $18.18B |
| 2024Q4 | $16.74B |
| 2025Q1 | $17.02B |
| 2025Q2 | $16.89B |
| 2025Q3 | $16.84B |
| 2025Q4 | $15.17B |
| 2026Q1 | $16.58B |
| 2026Q2 | $25.20B |
| 2026Q3E | $22.88B |
| 2026Q4E | $19.87B |
| 2027Q1E | $21.07B |
| 2027Q2E | $21.30B |
| 2027Q3E | $20.43B |
| 2027Q4E | $18.47B |
| 2028Q1E | $20.17B |
| 2028Q2E | $20.85B |
| 2028Q3E | $20.31B |
| 2028Q4E | $18.59B |
| 2029Q1E | $20.48B |
| 2029Q2E | $21.31B |
| 2029Q3E | $20.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $19.16B |
| 2030Q1E | $21.17B |
| 2030Q2E | $22.06B |
| 2030Q3E | $21.62B |
| 2030Q4E | $19.87B |
| 2031Q1E | $21.97B |
| 2031Q2E | $22.90B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the only Chevron line whose quarterly shape repeats inside a tight band, so it is the only one carrying seasonal factors: 1.013, 1.046, 1.016, 0.925 on calendar quarters, with a Q4 that sits 7-8% below the annual mean in every window available.
- Because the unit driver ignores the basis level the engine deseasonalises, the price input is stated deseasonalised: $247.41 is the $258.79 print divided by the 1.046 second-quarter factor the engine then reapplies quarter by quarter.
- The volume ceiling of 100.4M barrels a quarter is 1,103 MBD of implied nameplate, derived from 1,070 MBD at more than 97% utilisation. The path reaches it and stops, which is the honest shape of a refining system with no headroom.
- The basis EBITDA margin of 21.5% is the 13.1% derived from the segment column plus the $2,114M of U.S. Upstream EBITDA that a 100% cap cannot hold. It glides to the 6% terminal the brief supports, so the credit unwinds as the transfer artefact does.
International Downstream
Units × priceRefining, marketing and lubricants outside the United States, with crude unit inputs of 598 MBD in the basis quarter after a 10% fall the company attributes to Middle East supply disruption. Refined product sales of 1,287 MBD are more than twice the crude run, so reported revenue per input barrel moves with the sales-to-throughput mix as much as with price.
Latest: $19.97B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $17.70B |
| 2024Q2 | $20.09B |
| 2024Q3 | $19.29B |
| 2024Q4 | $18.79B |
| 2025Q1 | $16.82B |
| 2025Q2 | $16.50B |
| 2025Q3 | $16.48B |
| 2025Q4 | $16.12B |
| 2026Q1 | $17.94B |
| 2026Q2 | $25.57B |
| 2026Q3E | $23.06B |
| 2026Q4E | $21.42B |
| 2027Q1E | $20.34B |
| 2027Q2E | $19.62B |
| 2027Q3E | $19.14B |
| 2027Q4E | $18.84B |
| 2028Q1E | $18.66B |
| 2028Q2E | $18.57B |
| 2028Q3E | $18.55B |
| 2028Q4E | $18.58B |
| 2029Q1E | $18.65B |
| 2029Q2E | $18.74B |
| 2029Q3E | $18.86B |
| 2029Q4E | $18.99B |
| 2030Q1E | $19.13B |
| 2030Q2E | $19.29B |
| 2030Q3E | $19.45B |
| 2030Q4E | $19.62B |
| 2031Q1E | $19.80B |
| 2031Q2E | $19.97B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Chevron has signed an agreement to sell its 50% interest in Singapore Refining Company along with downstream assets in Singapore, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, expected to close in 2027. It has not sized the revenue that removes, so the model does not step the base down for it; the bear case carries it as an unquantified reduction.
- The $469.86 basis price per input barrel is a mix artefact more than a margin: crude runs fell 10% while product sales fell only 13% from a much larger base, so the ratio jumped. It glides back toward $305, near the 2024-2025 average.
- The Hong Kong fuels and lubricants business was sold in the basis quarter for about $290 million of proceeds, and the quarter also carried a $230M asset-sale gain that will not repeat.
- A one-off level step would be the right shape for the 2027 disposal, but the unit driver builds revenue from units and price and never reads the base, so baseShiftPct cannot move it. The bear case carries the reduction as a compounding growth delta instead.
All Other
Growth pathWorldwide cash management, debt financing, corporate administration, insurance, real estate and technology. It carried $146M of revenue in the basis quarter, about 0.2% of the consolidated line, and exists in this model so that the five verticals add to reported Total Revenues and Other Income exactly rather than approximately.
Latest: $168M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $206M |
| 2024Q2 | $139M |
| 2024Q3 | $148M |
| 2024Q4 | $157M |
| 2025Q1 | $398M |
| 2025Q2 | -$176M |
| 2025Q3 | $286M |
| 2025Q4 | $136M |
| 2026Q1 | $129M |
| 2026Q2 | $146M |
| 2026Q3E | $147M |
| 2026Q4E | $148M |
| 2027Q1E | $149M |
| 2027Q2E | $150M |
| 2027Q3E | $151M |
| 2027Q4E | $152M |
| 2028Q1E | $153M |
| 2028Q2E | $154M |
| 2028Q3E | $155M |
| 2028Q4E | $157M |
| 2029Q1E | $158M |
| 2029Q2E | $159M |
| 2029Q3E | $160M |
| 2029Q4E | $161M |
| 2030Q1E | $162M |
| 2030Q2E | $163M |
| 2030Q3E | $164M |
| 2030Q4E | $166M |
| 2031Q1E | $167M |
| 2031Q2E | $168M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This line went negative in 2025 Q2 at -$176M. A multiplicative driver would break on a negative basis quarter; the 2026 Q2 base of +$146M is positive, so the engine is safe on this basis but the line must be watched at each refresh.
- Its $1,108M quarterly cost block does not sit here. It is carried in corporate overhead at 1.58% of consolidated revenue so it is not double-counted against a $146M revenue stub, which is why this vertical's EBITDA margin is zero rather than -759%.
- Carrying overhead as a percentage of revenue means it falls when the commodity price falls, which corporate costs do not really do. It is the only mechanism the engine offers, and in the bear case it charges $695M in the last projected quarter against a $1,108M cost block, about $400M a quarter too generous.
Where each case comes from
Bear case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bear column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Bull case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Bull column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Kilby case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the Kilby column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
Kilby disclosure
- Jul 31, 2026 a power facility in West Texas designed to provide approximately 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter dedicated electricity capacity to a Microsoft data center under a 20-year power purchase agreement
- Aug 6, 2026 Chevron expects share repurchases in third quarter 2026 to be between $2.5-$3.0 billion
From cash flow to fair value
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $137.89B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $244.25B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $66.95B |
| Exit multiple, on ebitda | 8.0x |
| Terminal value | $535.61B |
| Discounted at 9.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $348.11B |
| Enterprise value | $486.00B |
| Net cash | -$28.55B |
| Equity value | $457.45B |
| Shares | 1.96B |
| Fair value per share | $233.16 |
| Against the current price of $199.77 | +17% |
9% is the cost of equity for a major running a 13.1% net debt ratio. The 7.0x exit sits between the 7.9x the market pays on trailing EBITDA that contains the spike quarter and the 6-7x a mid-cycle major usually fetches. Against FY2025 EBITDA of $39.9B the same enterprise value is 10.7x, which is the whole argument: the multiple you believe depends entirely on which EBITDA you think is normal.
Read the other way round: at $199.77 the market is paying 6.5x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
| Quarter | U.S. Upstream | International Upstream | U.S. Downstream | International Downstream | All Other | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $5.64B | $12.55B | $22.88B | $23.06B | $147M | $64.27B | +29% | $20.79B | $4.46B | $11.95B | +48 | $11.70B |
| 2026 Q4E | $5.68B | $11.91B | $19.87B | $21.42B | $148M | $59.03B | +26% | $18.61B | $4.42B | $10.38B | +44 | $9.95B |
| 2027 Q1E | $5.74B | $11.50B | $21.07B | $20.34B | $149M | $58.79B | +21% | $17.62B | $4.44B | $9.65B | +37 | $9.05B |
| 2027 Q2E | $5.80B | $11.24B | $21.30B | $19.62B | $150M | $58.11B | -17% | $16.85B | $4.47B | $9.06B | -1 | $8.31B |
| 2027 Q3E | $5.87B | $11.10B | $20.43B | $19.14B | $151M | $56.69B | -12% | $16.22B | $4.50B | $8.57B | +3 | $7.70B |
| 2027 Q4E | $5.94B | $11.03B | $18.47B | $18.84B | $152M | $54.44B | -8% | $15.69B | $4.54B | $8.17B | +7 | $7.18B |
| 2028 Q1E | $6.02B | $11.03B | $20.17B | $18.66B | $153M | $56.04B | -5% | $15.62B | $4.61B | $8.06B | +10 | $6.93B |
| 2028 Q2E | $6.11B | $11.06B | $20.85B | $18.57B | $154M | $56.74B | -2% | $15.55B | $4.67B | $7.96B | +12 | $6.70B |
| 2028 Q3E | $6.19B | $11.13B | $20.31B | $18.55B | $155M | $56.34B | -1% | $15.46B | $4.73B | $7.85B | +13 | $6.47B |
| 2028 Q4E | $6.28B | $11.22B | $18.59B | $18.58B | $157M | $54.83B | +1% | $15.36B | $4.79B | $7.74B | +15 | $6.24B |
| 2029 Q1E | $6.37B | $11.33B | $20.48B | $18.65B | $158M | $56.99B | +2% | $15.54B | $4.87B | $7.81B | +15 | $6.16B |
| 2029 Q2E | $6.46B | $11.46B | $21.31B | $18.74B | $159M | $58.13B | +2% | $15.68B | $4.95B | $7.85B | +16 | $6.06B |
| 2029 Q3E | $6.56B | $11.60B | $20.86B | $18.86B | $160M | $58.03B | +3% | $15.77B | $5.02B | $7.87B | +17 | $5.94B |
| 2029 Q4E | $6.65B | $11.74B | $19.16B | $18.99B | $161M | $56.70B | +3% | $15.80B | $5.08B | $7.85B | +17 | $5.80B |
| 2030 Q1E | $6.75B | $11.90B | $21.17B | $19.13B | $162M | $59.11B | +4% | $16.07B | $5.17B | $7.98B | +17 | $5.78B |
| 2030 Q2E | $6.85B | $12.06B | $22.06B | $19.29B | $163M | $60.42B | +4% | $16.30B | $5.26B | $8.08B | +17 | $5.73B |
| 2030 Q3E | $6.95B | $12.23B | $21.62B | $19.45B | $164M | $60.42B | +4% | $16.45B | $5.33B | $8.14B | +18 | $5.64B |
| 2030 Q4E | $7.05B | $12.40B | $19.87B | $19.62B | $166M | $59.11B | +4% | $16.53B | $5.39B | $8.16B | +18 | $5.53B |
| 2031 Q1E | $7.15B | $12.58B | $21.97B | $19.80B | $167M | $61.67B | +4% | $16.86B | $5.49B | $8.32B | +18 | $5.53B |
| 2031 Q2E | $7.26B | $12.76B | $22.90B | $19.97B | $168M | $63.06B | +4% | $17.12B | $5.57B | $8.45B | +18 | $5.49B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Changed | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | verticals, corporate, valuation, scenarios | $175.43 | First published model, built from the verified 2026 Q2 research brief. Five reported segment lines, unit drivers on all four operating segments, a flat stub for All Other, and an explicit price-normalisation path out of a $104 Brent basis quarter. |