BRK-B · Forward model · Berkshire Hathaway Energy · Bull case
What has to happen in Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Model as of
This page changes Berkshire Hathaway Energy inside the complete BRK-B model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Basis quarter$6.74B
Final quarter$8.19B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix7%
Regulated utilities, natural gas pipelines, other energy businesses and HomeServices real-estate brokerage, against energy cost of sales, operations and maintenance, depreciation and BHE's own interest expense. $6,735M of revenue and $604M of pre-tax earnings in the basis quarter. This is the only vertical with a large NEGATIVE income tax line: energy production tax credits produced a $333M tax BENEFIT on $604M of pre-tax earnings, which is why the company-wide 18.267% effective rate is well below 21%.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$7.30B
Reported
2025 Q4
$6.22B
Estimated
2026 Q1
$6.66B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.74B
Reported
US regulated utilitiesNatural gas pipelinesOther energy businessesHomeServices real estate
Sequential growth
+0.6%/qtr
decaying toward +0.6%
0.55% a quarter. Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth was 2.15%; rate base grows, load does not.
Berkshire Hathaway Energy
Latest: $8.19B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q1 | $6.02B |
| 2022Q2 | $6.54B |
| 2022Q3 | $7.56B |
| 2022Q4 | $6.27B |
| 2023Q1 | $6.45B |
| 2023Q2 | $6.36B |
| 2023Q3 | $7.28B |
| 2023Q4 | $5.91B |
| 2024Q1 | $6.28B |
| 2024Q2 | $6.49B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.33B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.24B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.36B |
| 2025Q2 | $6.42B |
| 2025Q3 | $7.30B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.22B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.66B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.74B |
| 2026Q3E | $7.77B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.53B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.85B |
| 2027Q2E | $7.00B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.07B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.79B |
| 2028Q1E | $7.12B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.28B |
| 2028Q3E | $8.39B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.06B |
| 2029Q1E | $7.41B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.57B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.73B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.34B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.70B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.87B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.08B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.64B |
| 2031Q1E | $8.02B |
| 2031Q2E | $8.19B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- SEASONAL, and by far the strongest signal in the company. Factors [0.9686, 0.9800, 1.1193, 0.9322] from a ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average over 2022 Q1 to 2026 Q2, renormalised to mean 1.0: signal 0.1871 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.0330, clearing it by 5.7x. It is summer cooling load, and the basis quarter is deseasonalised by the 0.9800 second-quarter factor before the driver runs.
- 8.97% basis quarter against 9.59% trailing twelve months and 9.06% over ten quarters. BHE's quarterly margin swings from 5.16% to 15.01% on weather, and that swing is carried by the REVENUE seasonality above; the margin is deliberately not seasonalised as well, because that would double-count the same weather.
- BHE is where the model's zero capex intensity costs the most. The segment spent $2,531M on property, plant and equipment in the quarter against $1,048M of depreciation. Setting capexIntensity to that difference over revenue would be 22.0% against an 8.97% pre-tax margin and would drive this vertical's free cash flow to about -13% of revenue for twenty straight quarters. See the model notes for how the gap is quantified instead.
- PacifiCorp's 2020 Oregon and 2022 McKinney wildfire litigation is live and unresolved in Note 22 of the 10-Q, and $2,084M of 2025 energy production tax credits are a policy variable rather than an earned margin. Both sit in the bear case.
- Segment earnings before income taxes are struck after this segment's OWN interest expense. The seven segments' interest lines sum to $1,437M in the basis quarter against $1,335M of CONSOLIDATED interest expense, so every dollar of Berkshire's interest cost is already charged inside a vertical margin. That is why no debt is netted in spec.netCash: subtracting the $128,599M of borrowings as well would take the same cost twice.
- Berkshire files no fourth-quarter report. Every Q4 point here is the annual figure less the nine-month figure from that year's third-quarter 10-Q and is flagged estimated for that reason; Q1, Q2 and Q3 are read directly from the filed segment notes and are not.