BE · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-23

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Bloom reports four revenue streams — Product, Installation, Service and Electricity — on the face of every income statement, so all four verticals carry REPORTED revenue and nothing is apportioned. Every quarter from 2023 Q1 to 2026 Q2 is a disclosed split except the three fourth quarters, which are the full-year segment figure less the nine-month year-to-date and are flagged estimated. The stream revenues sum exactly to reported consolidated revenue in thirteen of fourteen quarters; 2023 Q4 differs by $1 thousand, a rounding artifact of that subtraction. What is NOT disclosed, and is therefore ours: the end-market split (AI data centre, utility channel, colocation, C&I) is nowhere in the filings and is deliberately not modelled; megawatts shipped or accepted are disclosed in no period, so every megawatt here is back-solved from an assumed $3.0M/MW; the installed service fleet is assumed; and Bloom allocates no operating expense to a stream, so verticals carry gross margin only and all opex sits in the corporate layer — which is what makes 33.38% gross margin less 16.27% opex reconcile to the reported 17.11% operating margin. One material item the engine cannot express: the Oracle warrant is contra-revenue, not cost. Its $324.4M fair value is recognised as a reduction of revenue as the Oracle systems ship, and $306.5M of that still sits on the balance sheet as a customer consideration asset. The product line here is GROSS of it, so cumulative product revenue through the Oracle delivery window is overstated by up to $306.5M — roughly 8.5% of that tranche. Net cash of -$17.6M treats the $206.5M of financing obligations as debt; excluding them it is +$188.9M.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

Capex outside the verticals

Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.