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BE · Forward model · Electricity — Bloom-owned systems · Bear case

What has to happen in Electricity — Bloom-owned systems

Model as of

This page changes Electricity — Bloom-owned systems inside the complete BE model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BE forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $36.33 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $27M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The gap between the ~$20B management backlog and $419.4M of GAAP remaining performance obligations is where this case lives. Service backlog is cancellable annually, AEP's offtake is still conditional into December 2026, and 2.45 of Oracle's 2.8 GW sits at one New Mexico campus — so a site slipping is a lumpy quarter and a framework not converting is a lost year. What this case does NOT reach is a failure of demand: even here Bloom grows, just at a fraction of the guided pace.

Electricity — Bloom-owned systems

Basis quarter$10M
Final quarter$4M
Implied CAGR−18%
Final revenue mix0%

Legacy power sales from systems Bloom owns and operates itself, sold under PPAs. Bloom is not adding to this fleet — it now sells the box or lets a financier own it — so the line is in slow runoff and was 0.9% of revenue in the basis quarter. It is carried because it reconciles the reported total, not because it moves fair value.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $10M Reported
2025 Q4 $10M Estimated
2026 Q1 $10M Reported
2026 Q2 $10M Reported
PPA power sales from Bloom-owned Energy Servers
Sequential growth −3.0%/qtr decaying toward −2.0% Revenue fell from $26.95M in 2025 Q1 to $9.95M in 2026 Q2 as PPAs expire and no owned systems are added.
Electricity — Bloom-owned systems

Latest: $4M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q1 $20M
2023Q2 $20M
2023Q3 $26M
2023Q4 $16M
2024Q1 $14M
2024Q2 $14M
2024Q3 $14M
2024Q4 $11M
2025Q1 $27M
2025Q2 $13M
2025Q3 $10M
2025Q4 $10M
2026Q1 $10M
2026Q2 $10M
2026Q3E $9M
2026Q4E $9M
2027Q1E $8M
2027Q2E $8M
2027Q3E $8M
2027Q4E $7M
2028Q1E $7M
2028Q2E $7M
2028Q3E $6M
2028Q4E $6M
2029Q1E $6M
2029Q2E $5M
2029Q3E $5M
2029Q4E $5M
2030Q1E $5M
2030Q2E $4M
2030Q3E $4M
2030Q4E $4M
2031Q1E $4M
2031Q2E $4M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Quarterly revenue is lumpy because it includes periodic true-ups: 2025 Q1 was $26.95M against $12.81M the following quarter. The trend is down; the quarter-to-quarter path is noise.
  • This is the only vertical using a growth driver, and the reason is that the underlying owned fleet is never disclosed in megawatts and is not being added to.
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