BE · Forward model · Installation · Bear case
What has to happen in Installation
Model as of
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Installation
Site work that turns delivered boxes on. Economically a pass-through Bloom runs at or below cost, and structurally a shrinking claim on the P&L: as deployments move to AI-scale campuses where a financier or EPC contracts the civil and electrical work directly, less of it lands in Bloom's revenue at all. Installation was 17.1% of product revenue in 2025 Q3 and 4.0% and 5.4% in the two most recent quarters. It is driven off the same megawatts as product, at a falling dollar-per-megawatt.
Latest: $47M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $21M |
| 2023Q2 | $24M |
| 2023Q3 | $22M |
| 2023Q4 | $26M |
| 2024Q1 | $11M |
| 2024Q2 | $43M |
| 2024Q3 | $32M |
| 2024Q4 | $36M |
| 2025Q1 | $34M |
| 2025Q2 | $37M |
| 2025Q3 | $66M |
| 2025Q4 | $67M |
| 2026Q1 | $26M |
| 2026Q2 | $51M |
| 2026Q3E | $50M |
| 2026Q4E | $49M |
| 2027Q1E | $49M |
| 2027Q2E | $48M |
| 2027Q3E | $48M |
| 2027Q4E | $48M |
| 2028Q1E | $47M |
| 2028Q2E | $47M |
| 2028Q3E | $47M |
| 2028Q4E | $47M |
| 2029Q1E | $47M |
| 2029Q2E | $47M |
| 2029Q3E | $47M |
| 2029Q4E | $47M |
| 2030Q1E | $47M |
| 2030Q2E | $47M |
| 2030Q3E | $47M |
| 2030Q4E | $47M |
| 2031Q1E | $47M |
| 2031Q2E | $47M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Gross margin has been negative in eleven of the fourteen reported quarters, ranging -35.3% to +8.9%. Modelling this line at a positive margin would misstate how Bloom actually books site work.
- The ratio to product revenue is the real variable and it is falling hard: 17.1%, 10.5%, 4.0%, 5.4% over the last four quarters. That is a mix shift toward AI-scale sites, not a pricing change, and it is why this line does not scale with product.