BAC · Forward model · Global Markets
What has to happen in Global Markets
Model as of
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Global Markets
Basis quarter$8.02B
Final quarter$9.48B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix24%
Sales and trading plus the markets share of banking fees. $8,022M of FTE revenue, +34% year over year, on total sales and trading revenue of $7,098M including net DVA of minus $57M. This is the only line in the model with a verified calendar shape: Q1 runs hot and Q4 runs cold, in every year of the window.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$6.22B
Reported
2025 Q4
$5.30B
Reported
2026 Q1
$7.11B
Reported
2026 Q2
$8.02B
Reported
Fixed income, currencies and commoditiesEquitiesInvestment banking
Sequential growth
+0.5%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
0.5% QoQ on the DESEASONALISED trend. 2Q26 was a record and the seasonal factors already supply the Q1 lift.
Global Markets
Latest: $9.48B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q4 | $3.86B |
| 2023Q1 | $5.63B |
| 2023Q2 | $4.87B |
| 2023Q3 | $4.94B |
| 2023Q4 | $4.09B |
| 2024Q1 | $5.88B |
| 2024Q2 | $5.46B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.63B |
| 2024Q4 | $4.84B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.58B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.98B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.22B |
| 2025Q4 | $5.30B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.11B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $8.11B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $9.16B |
| 2027Q2E | $8.22B |
| 2027Q3E | $8.33B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.87B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.44B |
| 2028Q2E | $8.48B |
| 2028Q3E | $8.61B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.11B |
| 2029Q1E | $9.78B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.79B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.92B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.37B |
| 2030Q1E | $10.15B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.12B |
| 2030Q3E | $9.27B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.66B |
| 2031Q1E | $10.55B |
| 2031Q2E | $9.48B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonal factors [1.1364, 1.0119, 1.0183, 0.8335] come from the ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average over 2023 Q2 to 2025 Q4. Signal is 0.303 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.035, an 8.6-to-1 ratio.
- Because the basis quarter is a calendar Q2, the engine divides the $8,022M base by 1.0119 before the driver runs, so growthQoQ here is a deseasonalised trend rate and not a sequential revenue forecast.
- The 44.2% margin is pre-tax income of $3,549M and is the highest print in the window, well above the roughly 36% averaged in 2024. Terminal 38.0% walks it back toward that rather than holding a record.
- Provision is effectively zero and was minus $11M in the basis quarter. Trading is a market-risk business, not a credit-risk one, so none of the group's credit cost sits here.
- The base quarter is a record: Equities +70% and a 17th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. If that proves to be one risk-on quarter, both the opening level and the margin are too high.