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What has to happen in Global Markets

Model as of

This page changes Global Markets inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $42.19 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.08B 24% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $46.03B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Global Markets mean-reverts from a record +34% quarter, the credit cycle arrives as a step rather than a glide, and NII misses the upper end of 6-8% because the September hike in the forward curve the guide is conditioned on does not land. Consumer Banking takes the deepest margin cut, minus 4.0 points in total, which on that segment alone is roughly $1.9B a year of extra provision - the model's substitute for a credit cycle, since provisions live inside the vertical margins and cannot be stepped any other way. The market re-rates BAC toward book. What this case does NOT assume is a capital hole, a deposit run or a 2008-style credit event: 11.2% CET1 on $202B of CET1 capital is not in question here. It says the June quarter was the peak. Result: $42.19 a share, 1.44x tangible book and 1.07x book.

Global Markets

Basis quarter$8.02B
Final quarter$8.08B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix24%

Sales and trading plus the markets share of banking fees. $8,022M of FTE revenue, +34% year over year, on total sales and trading revenue of $7,098M including net DVA of minus $57M. This is the only line in the model with a verified calendar shape: Q1 runs hot and Q4 runs cold, in every year of the window.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.22B Reported
2025 Q4 $5.30B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.11B Reported
2026 Q2 $8.02B Reported
Fixed income, currencies and commoditiesEquitiesInvestment banking
Sequential growth +0.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 0.5% QoQ on the DESEASONALISED trend. 2Q26 was a record and the seasonal factors already supply the Q1 lift.
Global Markets

Latest: $8.08B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 $3.86B
2023Q1 $5.63B
2023Q2 $4.87B
2023Q3 $4.94B
2023Q4 $4.09B
2024Q1 $5.88B
2024Q2 $5.46B
2024Q3 $5.63B
2024Q4 $4.84B
2025Q1 $6.58B
2025Q2 $5.98B
2025Q3 $6.22B
2025Q4 $5.30B
2026Q1 $7.11B
2026Q2 $8.02B
2026Q3E $8.05B
2026Q4E $6.57B
2027Q1E $8.95B
2027Q2E $7.96B
2027Q3E $8.00B
2027Q4E $6.55B
2028Q1E $8.93B
2028Q2E $7.95B
2028Q3E $8.01B
2028Q4E $6.56B
2029Q1E $8.95B
2029Q2E $7.98B
2029Q3E $8.04B
2029Q4E $6.59B
2030Q1E $9.00B
2030Q2E $8.02B
2030Q3E $8.09B
2030Q4E $6.63B
2031Q1E $9.05B
2031Q2E $8.08B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonal factors [1.1364, 1.0119, 1.0183, 0.8335] come from the ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average over 2023 Q2 to 2025 Q4. Signal is 0.303 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.035, an 8.6-to-1 ratio.
  • Because the basis quarter is a calendar Q2, the engine divides the $8,022M base by 1.0119 before the driver runs, so growthQoQ here is a deseasonalised trend rate and not a sequential revenue forecast.
  • The 44.2% margin is pre-tax income of $3,549M and is the highest print in the window, well above the roughly 36% averaged in 2024. Terminal 38.0% walks it back toward that rather than holding a record.
  • Provision is effectively zero and was minus $11M in the basis quarter. Trading is a market-risk business, not a credit-risk one, so none of the group's credit cost sits here.
  • The base quarter is a record: Equities +70% and a 17th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. If that proves to be one risk-on quarter, both the opening level and the margin are too high.
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