BAC · Forward model · Global Banking
What has to happen in Global Banking
Model as of
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Global Banking
Basis quarter$6.24B
Final quarter$7.61B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix19%
Corporate and commercial lending, treasury services and the banking half of investment banking. $6,236M of FTE revenue on $651.9B of average deposits. Total-Corporation IB fees of $2,138M were +50% year over year, but only $1,154M of that sits in this segment.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$6.19B
Reported
2025 Q4
$6.24B
Reported
2026 Q1
$6.29B
Reported
2026 Q2
$6.24B
Reported
Business LendingGlobal Transaction ServicesInvestment banking
Sequential growth
+1.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
1.0% QoQ. Revenue actually fell $51M sequentially, so this does not extrapolate the +50% IB fee quarter.
Global Banking
Latest: $7.61B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q4 | $6.44B |
| 2023Q1 | $6.20B |
| 2023Q2 | $6.46B |
| 2023Q3 | $6.20B |
| 2023Q4 | $5.93B |
| 2024Q1 | $5.98B |
| 2024Q2 | $6.05B |
| 2024Q3 | $5.83B |
| 2024Q4 | $6.10B |
| 2025Q1 | $5.99B |
| 2025Q2 | $5.69B |
| 2025Q3 | $6.19B |
| 2025Q4 | $6.24B |
| 2026Q1 | $6.29B |
| 2026Q2 | $6.24B |
| 2026Q3E | $6.30B |
| 2026Q4E | $6.36B |
| 2027Q1E | $6.42B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.49B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.55B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.62B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.69B |
| 2028Q2E | $6.75B |
| 2028Q3E | $6.82B |
| 2028Q4E | $6.89B |
| 2029Q1E | $6.96B |
| 2029Q2E | $7.03B |
| 2029Q3E | $7.10B |
| 2029Q4E | $7.17B |
| 2030Q1E | $7.24B |
| 2030Q2E | $7.31B |
| 2030Q3E | $7.39B |
| 2030Q4E | $7.46B |
| 2031Q1E | $7.53B |
| 2031Q2E | $7.61B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Revenue fell $51M sequentially even as IB fees rose, because Business Lending revenue declined to $2,061M from $2,277M. The 1.0% opening rate reflects that, not the fee headline.
- The 45.3% margin is pre-tax income of $2,822M, after a $215M provision for credit losses. Global Banking carries the commercial credit risk and its provision has swung from a $239M release to a $277M build inside the fifteen-quarter window.
- Total Corporation IB fees of $2,138M are disclosed as $1,154M Global Banking, $965M Global Markets and $88M GWIM. They are left where the company puts them rather than reassembled into an investment-banking vertical.
- Terminal 44.0% is a mild fade as advisory and underwriting normalise off a +50% quarter, not a credit-cycle assumption.
- Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0055 against a worst window spread of 0.0851. Q2 ratios of 1.032, 1.014 and 0.947 are noise.