BAC · Forward model · Consumer Banking
What has to happen in Consumer Banking
Model as of
This page changes Consumer Banking inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
Shares this vertical and portfolio case. Slider and horizon edits stay in your browser.
Consumer Banking
Basis quarter$11.34B
Final quarter$14.01B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix35%
Deposits, cards, small business and the financial-centre network. $11,336M of FTE revenue in the basis quarter on $957.0B of average deposits and $321.1B of average loans. Neither balances nor card spend are published as a complete priced volume series, so the line is projected as sequential growth on the reported revenue.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$11.17B
Reported
2025 Q4
$11.20B
Reported
2026 Q1
$11.05B
Reported
2026 Q2
$11.34B
Reported
DepositsConsumer lendingCredit cardSmall business
Sequential growth
+1.2%/qtr
decaying toward +1.0%
1.2% QoQ, the trailing four-quarter average sequential. Not the +4.8% year-over-year headline.
Consumer Banking
Latest: $14.01B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022Q4 | $10.78B |
| 2023Q1 | $10.71B |
| 2023Q2 | $10.52B |
| 2023Q3 | $10.47B |
| 2023Q4 | $10.33B |
| 2024Q1 | $10.17B |
| 2024Q2 | $10.21B |
| 2024Q3 | $10.42B |
| 2024Q4 | $10.65B |
| 2025Q1 | $10.49B |
| 2025Q2 | $10.81B |
| 2025Q3 | $11.17B |
| 2025Q4 | $11.20B |
| 2026Q1 | $11.05B |
| 2026Q2 | $11.34B |
| 2026Q3E | $11.47B |
| 2026Q4E | $11.61B |
| 2027Q1E | $11.74B |
| 2027Q2E | $11.87B |
| 2027Q3E | $12.00B |
| 2027Q4E | $12.13B |
| 2028Q1E | $12.26B |
| 2028Q2E | $12.39B |
| 2028Q3E | $12.52B |
| 2028Q4E | $12.66B |
| 2029Q1E | $12.79B |
| 2029Q2E | $12.92B |
| 2029Q3E | $13.05B |
| 2029Q4E | $13.19B |
| 2030Q1E | $13.32B |
| 2030Q2E | $13.46B |
| 2030Q3E | $13.59B |
| 2030Q4E | $13.73B |
| 2031Q1E | $13.87B |
| 2031Q2E | $14.01B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity. Average deposits of $957.0B and average loans of $321.1B are disclosed, but BAC publishes no priced volume series the engine could charge a yield on.
- The 38.6% margin is PRE-TAX income, $4,375M, already net of the $1,160M provision for credit losses and of segment noninterest expense. It is not EBITDA and it is not pre-provision profit.
- Consumer carries roughly 85% of the group's credit cost, so this is the line where a consumer credit cycle shows up. Provision has ranged $1,009M to $1,405M over the fifteen quarters, a 39% spread on a line that is 10% of segment revenue.
- Terminal 36.0% takes back 2.6 points for card-credit normalisation off a 0.47% group net charge-off ratio, which the deck itself frames as better than a year ago rather than as a mid-cycle rate.
- Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0219 against a worst window spread of 0.0145, with the whole amplitude inside plus or minus 1% of revenue.