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BAC · Forward model · Global Markets · NII Guide case

What has to happen in Global Markets

Model as of

This page changes Global Markets inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $68.34 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.48B 22% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $54.19B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Alastair Borthwick raised FY2026 NII growth to the upper end of the 6-8% range on the 14 July 2026 call, and full-year operating leverage to 300-400bps. This case pays for that on the lines where the deposit and lending balances actually sit - Consumer Banking and Global Banking take the growth and the operating leverage, GWIM takes half of it, Global Markets takes none. It does NOT assume Global Markets repeats +34%, and it does NOT treat the guided range as a floor: management explicitly conditioned it on 'the current forward curve, which has one 25 basis point rate hike in September', which had not occurred when this model was written. Result: $68.34 a share, 2.33x tangible book.

Global Markets

Basis quarter$8.02B
Final quarter$9.48B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix22%

Sales and trading plus the markets share of banking fees. $8,022M of FTE revenue, +34% year over year, on total sales and trading revenue of $7,098M including net DVA of minus $57M. This is the only line in the model with a verified calendar shape: Q1 runs hot and Q4 runs cold, in every year of the window.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.22B Reported
2025 Q4 $5.30B Reported
2026 Q1 $7.11B Reported
2026 Q2 $8.02B Reported
Fixed income, currencies and commoditiesEquitiesInvestment banking
Sequential growth +0.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 0.5% QoQ on the DESEASONALISED trend. 2Q26 was a record and the seasonal factors already supply the Q1 lift.
Global Markets

Latest: $9.48B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 $3.86B
2023Q1 $5.63B
2023Q2 $4.87B
2023Q3 $4.94B
2023Q4 $4.09B
2024Q1 $5.88B
2024Q2 $5.46B
2024Q3 $5.63B
2024Q4 $4.84B
2025Q1 $6.58B
2025Q2 $5.98B
2025Q3 $6.22B
2025Q4 $5.30B
2026Q1 $7.11B
2026Q2 $8.02B
2026Q3E $8.11B
2026Q4E $6.68B
2027Q1E $9.16B
2027Q2E $8.22B
2027Q3E $8.33B
2027Q4E $6.87B
2028Q1E $9.44B
2028Q2E $8.48B
2028Q3E $8.61B
2028Q4E $7.11B
2029Q1E $9.78B
2029Q2E $8.79B
2029Q3E $8.92B
2029Q4E $7.37B
2030Q1E $10.15B
2030Q2E $9.12B
2030Q3E $9.27B
2030Q4E $7.66B
2031Q1E $10.55B
2031Q2E $9.48B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonal factors [1.1364, 1.0119, 1.0183, 0.8335] come from the ratio to a centred four-quarter moving average over 2023 Q2 to 2025 Q4. Signal is 0.303 against a worst window-to-window spread of 0.035, an 8.6-to-1 ratio.
  • Because the basis quarter is a calendar Q2, the engine divides the $8,022M base by 1.0119 before the driver runs, so growthQoQ here is a deseasonalised trend rate and not a sequential revenue forecast.
  • The 44.2% margin is pre-tax income of $3,549M and is the highest print in the window, well above the roughly 36% averaged in 2024. Terminal 38.0% walks it back toward that rather than holding a record.
  • Provision is effectively zero and was minus $11M in the basis quarter. Trading is a market-risk business, not a credit-risk one, so none of the group's credit cost sits here.
  • The base quarter is a record: Equities +70% and a 17th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. If that proves to be one risk-on quarter, both the opening level and the margin are too high.
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