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BAC · Forward model · Global Banking · NII Guide case

What has to happen in Global Banking

Model as of

This page changes Global Banking inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $68.34 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.41B 20% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $51.56B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Alastair Borthwick raised FY2026 NII growth to the upper end of the 6-8% range on the 14 July 2026 call, and full-year operating leverage to 300-400bps. This case pays for that on the lines where the deposit and lending balances actually sit - Consumer Banking and Global Banking take the growth and the operating leverage, GWIM takes half of it, Global Markets takes none. It does NOT assume Global Markets repeats +34%, and it does NOT treat the guided range as a floor: management explicitly conditioned it on 'the current forward curve, which has one 25 basis point rate hike in September', which had not occurred when this model was written. Result: $68.34 a share, 2.33x tangible book.

Global Banking

Basis quarter$6.24B
Final quarter$8.41B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix20%

Corporate and commercial lending, treasury services and the banking half of investment banking. $6,236M of FTE revenue on $651.9B of average deposits. Total-Corporation IB fees of $2,138M were +50% year over year, but only $1,154M of that sits in this segment.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.19B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.24B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.29B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.24B Reported
Business LendingGlobal Transaction ServicesInvestment banking
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.0% QoQ. Revenue actually fell $51M sequentially, so this does not extrapolate the +50% IB fee quarter.
Global Banking

Latest: $8.41B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 $6.44B
2023Q1 $6.20B
2023Q2 $6.46B
2023Q3 $6.20B
2023Q4 $5.93B
2024Q1 $5.98B
2024Q2 $6.05B
2024Q3 $5.83B
2024Q4 $6.10B
2025Q1 $5.99B
2025Q2 $5.69B
2025Q3 $6.19B
2025Q4 $6.24B
2026Q1 $6.29B
2026Q2 $6.24B
2026Q3E $6.33B
2026Q4E $6.43B
2027Q1E $6.52B
2027Q2E $6.62B
2027Q3E $6.72B
2027Q4E $6.82B
2028Q1E $6.92B
2028Q2E $7.03B
2028Q3E $7.13B
2028Q4E $7.24B
2029Q1E $7.35B
2029Q2E $7.46B
2029Q3E $7.57B
2029Q4E $7.69B
2030Q1E $7.80B
2030Q2E $7.92B
2030Q3E $8.04B
2030Q4E $8.16B
2031Q1E $8.28B
2031Q2E $8.41B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue fell $51M sequentially even as IB fees rose, because Business Lending revenue declined to $2,061M from $2,277M. The 1.0% opening rate reflects that, not the fee headline.
  • The 45.3% margin is pre-tax income of $2,822M, after a $215M provision for credit losses. Global Banking carries the commercial credit risk and its provision has swung from a $239M release to a $277M build inside the fifteen-quarter window.
  • Total Corporation IB fees of $2,138M are disclosed as $1,154M Global Banking, $965M Global Markets and $88M GWIM. They are left where the company puts them rather than reassembled into an investment-banking vertical.
  • Terminal 44.0% is a mild fade as advisory and underwriting normalise off a +50% quarter, not a credit-cycle assumption.
  • Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0055 against a worst window spread of 0.0851. Q2 ratios of 1.032, 1.014 and 0.947 are noise.
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