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BAC · Forward model · Global Banking · Bull case

What has to happen in Global Banking

Model as of

This page changes Global Banking inside the complete BAC model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

BAC forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $82.10 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $8.58B 19% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $53.59B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Deposit repricing keeps running, the investment-banking pipeline converts, AUM compounds with markets, Global Markets holds the share gains behind a 17th consecutive quarter of growth, and expense discipline keeps printing the guided 300-400bps of operating leverage. What this case does NOT reach is a 20%-plus ROTCE or JPMorgan's roughly 3.2x tangible book: it gets BAC to about 2.8x, which is a re-rating of the franchise it has, not a re-rating onto its larger peer. Result: $82.10 a share at a 9.25% cost of equity and a 10.5x exit, which is a 13.6x P/E on net income.

Global Banking

Basis quarter$6.24B
Final quarter$8.58B
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix19%

Corporate and commercial lending, treasury services and the banking half of investment banking. $6,236M of FTE revenue on $651.9B of average deposits. Total-Corporation IB fees of $2,138M were +50% year over year, but only $1,154M of that sits in this segment.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.19B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.24B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.29B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.24B Reported
Business LendingGlobal Transaction ServicesInvestment banking
Sequential growth +1.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.0% 1.0% QoQ. Revenue actually fell $51M sequentially, so this does not extrapolate the +50% IB fee quarter.
Global Banking

Latest: $8.58B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2022Q4 $6.44B
2023Q1 $6.20B
2023Q2 $6.46B
2023Q3 $6.20B
2023Q4 $5.93B
2024Q1 $5.98B
2024Q2 $6.05B
2024Q3 $5.83B
2024Q4 $6.10B
2025Q1 $5.99B
2025Q2 $5.69B
2025Q3 $6.19B
2025Q4 $6.24B
2026Q1 $6.29B
2026Q2 $6.24B
2026Q3E $6.34B
2026Q4E $6.44B
2027Q1E $6.54B
2027Q2E $6.65B
2027Q3E $6.75B
2027Q4E $6.86B
2028Q1E $6.97B
2028Q2E $7.08B
2028Q3E $7.20B
2028Q4E $7.31B
2029Q1E $7.43B
2029Q2E $7.55B
2029Q3E $7.67B
2029Q4E $7.79B
2030Q1E $7.92B
2030Q2E $8.05B
2030Q3E $8.18B
2030Q4E $8.31B
2031Q1E $8.44B
2031Q2E $8.58B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Revenue fell $51M sequentially even as IB fees rose, because Business Lending revenue declined to $2,061M from $2,277M. The 1.0% opening rate reflects that, not the fee headline.
  • The 45.3% margin is pre-tax income of $2,822M, after a $215M provision for credit losses. Global Banking carries the commercial credit risk and its provision has swung from a $239M release to a $277M build inside the fifteen-quarter window.
  • Total Corporation IB fees of $2,138M are disclosed as $1,154M Global Banking, $965M Global Markets and $88M GWIM. They are left where the company puts them rather than reassembled into an investment-banking vertical.
  • Terminal 44.0% is a mild fade as advisory and underwriting normalise off a +50% quarter, not a credit-cycle assumption.
  • Seasonality was tested and rejected: signal 0.0055 against a worst window spread of 0.0851. Q2 ratios of 1.032, 1.014 and 0.947 are noise.
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